供应过剩持续 油价创一周新低

原油中断的情况逐渐缓解，供应过剩的担忧再度出现，原油期货成交价在周一创下了一周新低。

七月交付的西德州中质原油期货价格下跌33美分，收于每桶48.08美元，是5月16日以来即月合约的最低收盘价。伦敦洲际交易所，七月交付的布伦特原油期货价格下跌了37美分，收于每桶48.35美元。

嘉盛及城市指数的技术分析师 Fawad Razaqzada 认为：“原油价格短期内将处于超买状态，而当前的供应因素随时可能消失。”

他说：“得益于最近日的凉爽天气和降雨，加拿大的野火似乎已得到控制，疏散令已经撤销，石油工人可以返回了。

Razaqzada 说：“当前过剩的原油约有100万桶/日，如果想回到正常水平，还需要几个星期。”

北美洲与非洲的原油生产中断是近来油价大涨的主要原因。上周WTI油价上涨3.3%，但周五却收跌，原因就是一些供应中断的问题已得到解决。

上周美国油服巨头贝克休斯公司公布的数据也给油价施加了压力。贝克休斯报告称，上周美国活跃原油钻井数量维持不变。分析师称，油价的上涨趋势迫使一些美国页岩油生产商启动新的项目。

与此同时，美国经济数据显示，美联储可能在六月会议上加息。ClipperData 原油分析师 Troy Vincent 称：“这种预期导致美元大涨，从而打压商品期货价格。”

交易员也十分关注6月2日在维也纳举行的 OPEC 会议。

目前市场预测，该组织改变政策或是调整生产配额的可能性很低。

伊朗近来反复强调，他们没有任何冻产计划。俄罗斯能源部长 Alexander Novak 曾表示，石油供应过剩将达到每天150万桶，2016年的油价将在40美元至50美元之间。

纽约商品交易所，六月交付的汽油收于每加仑1.646美元，上涨了1美分，但六月交付的热燃油则下跌了1.3美分。

六月交付的天然气收于2.055美元。

Oil ends at 1-week low as global supply glut persists

Oil futures settled at their lowest level in a week on Monday as concerns surrounding recent disruptions to crude production eased, renewing expectations that global supplies will continue to outpace demand.

West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in July declined by 33 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $48.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest settlement for a front-month contract since May 16. July Brent crude LCON6, +1.17%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 37 cents, or 0.8%, to $48.35 a barrel.

Prices appear “overbought in the short term and the impact of temporary supply factors could end at any time,” said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at Forex.com and City Index.

The wildfires in Canada appear to be under control now thanks to cooler temperatures and rainfall in recent days,” he said. “The evacuation orders have been lifted and oil workers can return.”

But “It could still take a number of weeks to return crude outages of more than 1 million [barrels per day] back to normal levels, meaning the supply deficit from Canada will likely be in place for a while yet,” said Razaqzada.

Supply outages in North America and Africa have been largely responsible for the recent rise in oil prices. WTI oil prices gained 3.3% last week, but finished Friday’s session lower as some supply disruptions subsided.

Prices were also pressured after oil-field services firm Baker Hughes Inc. reported Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. was unchanged last week. Analysts said the uptrend in prices may entice some U.S. shale producers to start new projects.

Meanwhile, U.S. economic data have been pointing to the possibility of an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve at the central bank’s June meeting. “This has led to a recent rally in the U.S. dollar and [caused] commodities to turn lower,” said Troy Vincent, oil analyst at ClipperData. A strong dollar tends to weigh on dollar-denominated oil prices.

Traders are also looking ahead to a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, set for June 2 in Vienna.

Current expectations are very low for any change in policy or production, said Stuart Ive, a client manager at OM Financial. 　　

In other news, Iran recently reiterated that it has no plan to join any production freeze at the upcoming OPEC meeting. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak was also reported to have said he expects global supply to outpace demand by some 1.5 million barrels a day, with a forecast of an average oil price in 2016 at $40-$50 a barrel.

Back on Nymex, June gasoline  ended at $1.646 a gallon, up 1 cent, or 0.6%, while June heating oil  fell 1.3 cents, or 0.8%, to $1.478 a gallon.

June natural gas shed less than a penny to settle at $2.055 per million British thermal units.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-start-week-lower-amid-signals-global-supply-glut-remains-2016-05-23