David Einhorn对黄金价值的看法

 J.B. Maverick 2016年5月21日

像许多其他值得关注的市场分析家一样，对冲基金经理David Einhorn也对黄金持看涨态度。黄金是其对冲基金Greenlight Capital在2016年前几个月持有的前五种资产之一。在2016年第一季度给投资者的信中，他指出黄金从每盎司1050美元左右上涨到接近每盎司1300美元，上涨了接近20%，他表示：“我们相信越来越危险的货币政策将使黄金价格上涨。”

Einhorn批评欧洲央行推出的包括人为降低利率等不明智货币政策增加了资产购买和贷款补贴。他甚至对日本央行的负利率政策未能在很大程度上刺激日本经济做出了更严厉的批评。 最后但是不是最不重要的，他自2008年经济危机以来就经常指责美联储的货币政策。他指出，美联储已经开始放弃2015年12月的升息决定，Einhorn认为美联储的利率正常化在本质上与其多次重申的利率政策主要由就业率和通胀率决定的理论相冲突。就业数据持续改善，在通胀数据上，至少美国政府自己的数据达到了美联储2%的通胀目标，但是美联储没有发出在2016年再次加息的信号。

为什么关注Einhorn

Einhorn是价值投资对冲基金Greenlight Capital的创始人，该对冲基金自1996年成立以来年平均回报率为20%。基金在成立以来经历了两年的下降，其中一年是2015年。鉴于该基金的历史表现，投资者和分析师认为该基金将在2016年强势反弹。2016年第一季度Greenlight Capital盈利2870万美元，超过了其2015年第一季度亏损的2400万美元。Einhorn还是《Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: A Long Short (and Now Complete) Story》的作者，书中记录他成功做空联合资本和雷曼兄弟的小故事。

Einhorn与巴菲特对黄金观点的对比

Einhorn与巴菲特一直以来就黄金价值投资的观点不和。巴菲特长期以来一直嘲笑黄金的价值，他认为黄金的使用价值有限，工业用途很少且饱受争议，因此黄金几乎没有内在价值。巴菲特认为产生利率的公司要比黄金好得多。Einhorn反对说公司获取的纸币利润很容易被视为没有内在价值。Einhorn指出即使有人获得了所有美钞，他也不能长时间持有所有的美元，因为美联储可以很容易的印刷更多的钞票。相比之下，黄金的供应不会因为任何政府或者央行突发奇想的增加。鉴于美元在上世纪失了90%的购买力，Einhorn提出了与黄金相比1美元在100年后还能保留多少价值的问题。

今年黄金的表现

对投资者来说，简单的事实是截止到2016年第一季度末，Einhorn对黄金的投资看起来是个明智的决定，因为黄金价格上涨了接近20%，相比之下标准普尔500指数的表现却不尽人意。通过对比发现，截止到2016年5月初，标准普尔500上涨了1%，而广泛持有的黄金ETF “SPDR Gold Shares ETF”上涨了19.2%。

David Einhorn on the Value of Gold (GLD)

By J.B. Maverick | May 21, 2016 — 10:00 PM EDT

Hedge fund manager David Einhorn, like many other noteworthy market analysts such as Peter Schiff and Louise Yamada, is bullish on gold. It's one of the top five holdings of his Greenlight Capital hedge fund in the opening months of 2016. In his first quarter 2016 letter to investors, the president of Greenlight Capital noted gold's rise from approximately $1,050 to nearly $1,300 an ounce, roughly a 20% gain, stating, "We believe the increasingly adventurous monetary policy is bullish for gold."

Einhorn criticized the aggressive and, in his view, ill-advised monetary policies being pursued by European central banks, policies that include artificially low interest rates, increased asset purchases and borrowing subsidies. He had even harsher words for the Bank of Japan's negative interest rate policy that has largely failed to spur the Japanese economy. Last, but certainly not least, Einhorn excoriated the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's policy stance, as he frequently has since the 2008 financial crisis. He pointed out that the Fed has already begun backing away from its December 2015 rate hike decision, offering what Einhorn characterizes as rationalizations that essentially contradict the Fed's own oft-repeated statements that its interest rate policy is guided largely by employment and inflation data. Employment figures continue to improve, and inflation, at least by the U.S. government's own numbers, appears to have hit the Fed's 2% target, yet the Fed is no longer signaling any future interest rate hikes for 2016.

Why Pay Attention to Einhorn

Einhorn is founder of the value investing-oriented hedge fund Greenlight Capital, which has served up average annualized returns of 20% to its investors since its creation in 1996. The fund has only experienced two down years in its 20-year history, one of which was 2015. Given the fund's historical performance, investors and analysts expect a strong bounce back by Einhorn in 2016. The first quarter 2016 performance of Greenlight Capital, a $28.7 million profit, more than reversed its first quarter 2015 loss of $24 million. Einhorn is also the author of the book, "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: A Long Short (and Now Complete) Story," which chronicles his famously successful short sells of Allied Capital and Lehman Brothers.

Einhorn vs. Buffett on Gold

Einhorn has an informal but fairly long-standing feud with famed investor Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) over the value of gold as an investment. Buffett has long been on record as deriding the value of gold, pointing out that it has few practical, industrial uses and arguing, therefore, that it has little intrinsic value. Buffett argues that companies generating profits are a much better investment than gold. Einhorn counters by pointing out that the paper money profits of corporate endeavors can easily be viewed as having no intrinsic value. Einhorn notes the fact that even if a person managed to collect every single bill of U.S. currency, he likely wouldn't have all the money in the world for very long, since the Federal Reserve could simply print a few trillion more dollars. In contrast, the supply of gold cannot be increased by the whims of any central bank or government. Referring to the fact that the U.S. dollar has lost roughly 90% of its purchasing power over the last century, Einhorn also raised the question of how much value a dollar may retain 100 years from now as compared to the likely value of gold.

Gold's Year-to-Date Performance

The simple fact for investors as of the end of the first quarter of 2016 is that Einhorn's bullish stance on gold looks like a wise one, given that gold has risen in value approximately 20%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index (S&P) barely registered a positive number. By way of comparison, as of early May 2016, the S&P 500 was up 1%, while the most widely held gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD), was up 19.2%.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/insights/052116/david-einhorn-value-gold-gld.asp