MSCI预测乐观 中国股票出现最高单日涨幅

中国股票很可能在近期加入全球基准行列，因此中国股票在周二出现了两个月以来的最大涨幅

中国上证指数上涨了2.6%，是三月份以来最高的单日涨幅。深证指数上涨2.8%，创业板指数上涨3.2%。

再来看亚洲其他地区，日经指数上涨0.7%，韩国综合指数上涨0.5%，香港恒生指数上涨1.2%。澳大利亚标普ASX 200指数下跌0.2%。

分析家和投资者们一致认为，全球指数供应商 MSCI 很可能将中国A股纳入其新兴市场指数。该指数追踪的资金共计1.7万亿美元。交易员们认为，A股加入MSCI后，将会有数十亿资产管理资金流入中国，并抬高股价。

高盛周二表示，中国股市被纳入MSCI指数的几率从50%提升至70%，这点燃了市场情绪。

高盛分析家指出，中国证监会已经解决了投资者最担心的问题，明确了中国股票的实益所有权，并颁布了自愿停牌的新规。

在MSCI做出决策之前，全球投资者纷纷买入中国股票，香港交易所交易基金报告，周一的净流入量为20亿人民币（合3.038亿美元）。上周的流入量为6亿人民币。

据CSOP资产管理公司统计，这些流量主要来源于大型机构投资者。BOC国际公司分析家Jacky Zhang 表示：“这些机构大量买入低价蓝筹股。”

中国CSI 300金融指数上涨了2.8%，这与2014年牛市的早期情况极为相似，这一上涨趋势可能会维持一段时间。

苏州证券分析师邓文远认为：“市场可能会在短期内触底反弹。”海通国际证券集团销售交易部总经理 Andrew Sullivan 表示，中国市场近来的交易量较少。这意味着CSI 300基准指数的股票极易抬高股价。

日本四月的工业产出连续第二个月增加，因而其股票逐渐进入上行区间。今年年初，日本南部发生地震，供应链遭到破坏，产量骤减。

今早，日元兑美元的汇率在连续走强之后开始减弱。货币疲软使得日本产品更具竞争力，更有利于出口。

China stocks see biggest one-day gain, driven by MSCI speculation

Chinese stocks surged Tuesday in the largest one-day gain in two months, propelled by increased optimism that they may soon be included soon in an influential global benchmark.

In China, the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +3.34%  was up 2.6%, the biggest intraday move since March. The smaller Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.8%, and the tech-focused ChiNext index was up 3.2%.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average NIK, +0.98%  was up 0.7%, Korea’s Kospi SEU, +0.83%  was up 0.5%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +1.45% was up 1.2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.54%  was down 0.2%.

Analysts and investors were increasingly expecting that MSCI, the global index provider, will soon add mainland-traded Chinese stocks, so-called A-shares, in its Emerging Markets Index. Funds managing a total of some $1.7 trillion track this benchmark globally. Traders are anticipating that MSCI’s inclusion of A-shares into the index will channel billions in passive asset-management money into China, lifting share prices.

A Goldman Sachs report released Tuesday morning raised the likelihood of the stocks’ inclusion to 70% from 50% during MSCI’s expected decision mid-June, which helped boost market sentiment, traders said.

Goldman Sachs analysts said the China Securities Regulatory Commission appeared to have resolved investors’ concerns about having clear title to Chinese shares that they hold, known as beneficial ownership, and clarified rules about voluntary trading halts that had locked up roughly half the market in last summer’s rout.

In a sign that global investors were rapidly building positions on Chinese stocks ahead of MSCI’s decision, an exchange-traded fund in Hong Kong reported a net new inflow of 2 billion yuan ($303.8 million) on Monday. That followed 600 million yuan of inflows over the past week.

The flows came from large institutional investors, said CSOP Asset Management Ltd., which manages the CSOP FTSE China A50 exchange-traded fund that holds Chinese-listed blue chips.

“The institutions are clearly bargain hunting [for] blue-chips,” said Jacky Zhang, an analyst at BOC International.

The China CSI 300 Financials index soared 2.8%. The surge mirrors the early stages of China’s bull market in 2014, analysts said, suggesting this could just be the start of a prolonged upswing.

“The market may have bottomed out in the short term,” said Deng Wenyuan, an analyst at Soochow Securities.

Trading volumes have been thin in Chinese markets, said Andrew Sullivan, managing director of sales trading for Haitong International Securities Group. That means purchases of stocks heavily weighted in the CSI 300 benchmark, such as financials, can easily move markets higher, he said.

In Japan, shares edged into positive territory after data showed industrial output in April rose for the second month. Production improved from a sharp drop earlier in the year despite earthquake damage to supply chains in southern Japan.

The Japanese yen USDJPY, +0.02%   weakened to 111.12 to the U.S. dollar after a brief period of strengthening in the morning. A weaker currency helps exporters sell their goods at more competitive prices abroad.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-stocks-see-biggest-one-day-gain-on-msci-speculation-2016-05-31