等待加息中的市场

 Neuberger Berman 2016年6月3日

温和的美联储政策和疲软的美元可以为工资和企业利润增长创造空间。

我最近被邀请到彭博电视台发表对股市、美联储加息、美国消费者和零售板块的看法。

思考这三个主题是怎么互相关联是一件非常有趣的事情。他们之间的联系是什么呢？可能是生产力。

工资、价格和利润

上周美国大型企业联合会发布的最新《全球经济展望》中指出美国GDP在今年同比下降0.2%。这是1982年以来首次的同比下降。

在生产力增长缓慢的背景下，很难同时维持工资增长、有利的通胀和企业盈利增加。同时维持两个看起来是可能的，但是不能全部实现，2014年中期以来的市场选择已经明显表明我们正在处于一个低通胀和工资增长的企业盈利衰退时期。

在一个月以前我警告过在这个市场中要谨慎行事，从那时开始2016年的企业盈利预测已经悄然增长了17倍。

从表面上看，这些企业盈利实现的可能性并不大。当生产力和工资增长导致需求增加，将会引起价格上涨、利润空间加大和出现有利的通货膨胀。现在，全球竞争和美元的强势已经侵蚀了企业的定价能力，导致了工资上涨、通胀微弱和企业利润下降。

尽管消费者信心高涨但是工业举步维艰

这一动态帮助我们解释为什么制造业指数上周在住房销售达到24年新高的同时会出现令人非常失望的表现。这只是美国工业和美国消费者出现鲜明对比的一个例子。消费形式正在发生的重大转变将会很好的解释这种动态，其中包括网站购物增加而街头购物减少、更愿意购买已经尝试过的商品。

如果想要恢复企业盈利，那么必须是工资增长放缓或者以公司定价能力形式体现的通货膨胀变得强劲。普通读者可能会猜测我们的根据在哪里。上周，Brad Tank发表了他对区间交易美元的预测并表示美元逐渐疲软的趋势和之前的油价是企业收入恢复的基础。两者同时也会刺激通胀增长。

这里就体现出了美联储的作用。其2016年下半年的温和态度将会加剧美元疲软和促进通胀上涨。

最近的“美联储说法方式”没有表现出这方面的迹象，这在很大程度上增加我们对在今年进行多次加息的预测。市场预测6月的加息可能性在30%左右，但是这个数字是在几星期以前的4%增长上来的。事实是风险资产已经采取行动，银行股上涨和黄金抛售可能刺激联邦市场公开委员会。

美联储将会受到多少政治上的影响

我们团队的共识是今年将会出现两次加息，但是不是在6月，而是在9月和12月。为什么不是6月呢？因为我们还在等待第二季度的GDP数据，并且第一季度的数据非常不尽人意。值得庆幸的是，美联储的六月会议恰好在英国的退欧公投之前，这可以作为鸽派的Bill Dudley和鹰派的Robert Kaplan暂时停止争论的理由。

美联储将会受到多少政治上的影响的问题使我更宁愿相信美联储的加息次数将会减少。如果在7月和8月不发布消息，联邦市场公开委员会的加息就会面临没有传递出消息的风险。之后我们将会经历劳动节和大选，到那时你将会原谅央行的观望态度。

鉴于这些敏感的问题，我不会惊讶于美联储直到12月才进行下一次加息。这可能会给美元带来一些波动、巩固通胀的恢复并且可能为工资上涨和为当前股市做出缓冲提供空间。

The Market Plays a (Fed) Waiting Game

By Neuberger Berman | June 3, 2016 — 2:00 PM EDT

A dovish Fed and weaker dollar could create space for both wages and profits to rise.

I was invited onto Bloomberg Television recently to talk about my outlook on equity markets, the path for Fed rate hikes, and the U.S. consumer and retail sector.

It’s interesting to think about how those three subjects relate to one another. The missing link? It might be productivity.

Wages, Prices and Profits

Last week the latest Global Economic Outlook from The Conference Board projected a fall in U.S. GDP per hour worked of 0.2% this year. That would mark the first year-over-year decline since 1982.

With low productivity growth as the background, it’s extremely difficult to sustain a mix of wage growth, modest inflation and accelerating corporate earnings. Two of the three would seem possible, but not all of them, and since mid-2014 the choice the market has made has been obvious: We’ve had an earnings recession with rising wages, alongside steady, low inflation.

I warned against chasing this market over a month ago, and since then it has crept up to a multiple of around 17 times 2016 projected earnings.

On the face of things, it’s not obvious those earnings will materialize. When productivity was growing, rising wages led to more demand, which enabled price increases, wider margins and modest inflation. Today, global competition and a strong dollar have eroded corporate pricing power, leaving us with rising wages, subdued inflation and meager earnings.

Industry Is Struggling Despite High Consumer Confidence

This dynamic helps explain how we got such a disappointing reading from the Richmond Fed manufacturing index last week, at the same time as we got the biggest monthly rise in new home sales in 24 years. These are just the latest in a series of data points drawing a stark contrast between the moods of U.S. industry (which worries about the strong dollar, cheap oil and falling profits) and U.S. consumers (who wield a strong currency to buy cheaper gasoline and stuff to furnish their new homes). Significant shifts in consumption patterns—more online rather than high-street shopping, more purchases of experiences over goods—amplify this dynamic.

If earnings are to recover, either wage growth must slow or inflation, in the form of companies’ pricing power, must take hold. Regular readers may guess where our bias lies. Last week, Brad Tank outlined his expectations for a range-trading dollar and for a while we’ve said that a flat-to-weaker dollar and a firmer oil price were a foundation for earnings recovery. Both would stoke inflation, too.

And that is where the Fed comes in. A dovish second half of 2016 would cement this subdued-dollar, higher-inflation theme.

Recent “Fed speak” does little to support the thesis, apparently softening us up for more than one hike this year. Markets put the probability of a June hike at around 30%, but that’s up from 4% just a couple of weeks ago. The fact that risk assets have taken this in their stride, bank stocks have rallied and gold has sold off might embolden the FOMC.

How ‘Political’ Will the Fed Be?

The consensus on our teams is indeed for two hikes, not beginning in June, but at the September and December meetings. Why not in June? Because we’ll still be waiting on the Q2 GDP print and, lest we forget, the Q1 numbers were very disappointing. Furthermore, the June meeting comes just before the U.K.’s referendum on EU membership—which both the dovish Bill Dudley and the hawkish Robert Kaplan have cited as a reason to hold fire.

It is the question of how “political” the Fed might be that makes me err on the side of fewer rate hikes than some of my colleagues. Without a press conference in July and August, the FOMC risks hiking without being able to shape the message. Then we’re past Labor Day and deep into the clamor of the general election, during which you’d forgive the central bank for sitting on the sidelines.

With these sensitivities to consider, I would not be surprised to have to wait until December for the next hike. That could take some wind out of the dollar’s sails, underpin the ongoing recovery in inflation—and, potentially, free up margins to rise along with wages and place a cushion under today’s equity market multiples.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/neuberger-berman/articles/markets/060316/market-plays-fed-waiting-game.asp