对冲基金经理们对中国持看跌态度的三个原因

 J.B. Maveric 2016年6月1日

中国股票市场自2015年中期遭遇了严重的下跌，恒生指数下跌超过30%，从2015年4月的28133点跌到2016年5月的19852点。越来越多的人开始对中国股票和整体经济产生担忧。包括第三点基金、桥水联合基金、护照资本和新加坡的风和投资在内的许多著名对冲基金的基金经理都曾公开表示过对中国在未来几年的表现持消极看法。

在这些消极观点背后有许多依据。这些对冲基金经理引用的三个主要原因是GDP增长率下降、迫在眉睫的银行业危机和已经对美元大幅度贬值的人民币持续下跌压力。Crescat Capital的Nils Jenson在2016年三月发表的看法中曾表现出这三个原因。

GDP萎缩、通货膨胀和信贷问题

在2016年第一季度给投资者的审查信中，Crescat Capital的能源和材料分析师Nils Jenson说中国正在处于货币危机和银行危机的边缘，因为人民币的价格被过度高估且银行信贷问题持续增长。

在那封信中，Nils Jenson指出中国人民银行（PBOC）已经把中国的M2货币供应量增加到21.7万亿美元，是世界上最大的货币供应。这一数值比美国多75%，而中国的GDP则比美国的GDP少57%。Nils Jenson认为这一比例表明人民币在本质上严重被高估。

过度的钞票印刷和宽松的贷款政策支撑了中国经济的高增长率，但是借贷的增长减小了中国经济的回报率。不幸的是，中国在债务增长加速的同时经济增长却在放缓。中国银行业即将出现麻烦的一个主要征兆是中国银行业的不良贷款比率高达惊人的22%。 

中国政府基本上忽视了正在增长的债务问题，而通过增加贷款来防止人民币的大幅下跌。在Nils Jenson看来，随着资金外流给人民币的下行压力越来越大这种财政政策最终将会失败。

银行系统用来防止随着资本外流而引起的货币下跌风险的中国国际投资净头寸从2015年9月的1.5万亿美元下降到2016年1月的1.2万亿美元。中国不断增加货币供应使国际投资净头寸相对M2货币供应的比率从2011年的15%下降到2016年的6%。

总而言之，中国将无力支撑人民币和银行系统，关于这点，Jenson认为中国将不可避免的发生信贷和货币危机。他和其他的对冲基金经理估计人民币可能贬值30%到50%。

其他对冲基金经理对中国的看法

尼克斯联合基金的Jim Chanos 指出危险来自中国经济对建筑业的持续依赖，该行业占中国总经济的50%多。相比之下，西方发达国家的这一比率只在10%到15%之间。Chanos认为中国依赖房地产开发支撑经济，而不是通过整体国内需求和出口的增长的方式是不可能长期持续的。 

绿光资本的David Einhorn对中国经济持看跌态度的原因是通胀增长和经济增长率下降，他指出中国股市的大幅度下跌表明大型投资者正在撤出中国。 

风和投资的合伙创始人Matt Hu说他的公司在2015年末开始大规模做空中国股票，因为他预测中国股市持续多年的牛市即将结束。他认为会出现下跌的主要板块是汽车和零售行业，风和投资已经开始做空长城汽车和零售商六福集团。

3 Reasons Why Hedge Funds Are Bearish on China (GWLLF, 0590.HK)

By J.B. Maverick | June 1, 2016 — 10:00 PM EDT

China's stock market has suffered a severe downturn since mid-2015, with the Hang Seng Index declining nearly 30%, from 28,133 in April 2015 to 19,852 in May 2016. There are increasing concerns about stocks in China and the nation's overall economy. A number of prominent hedge fund managers, such as Dan Loeb’s Third Point, Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates, Passport Capital and Singapore-based F&H Fund Management, have openly expressed bearish views on China’s fortunes for the next several years.

There is plenty of rationale behind these pessimistic views. Three of the major reasons cited by hedge fund managers are a declining growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP), a looming banking crisis and continuing downward pressure on the Chinese yuan, which has already suffered a substantial decline in value relative to the U.S. dollar. These major themes are reflected in the views expressed by Crescat Capital's Nils Jenson in March 2016.

GDP Contraction, Currency Expansion and Credit Problems

In a first quarter 2016 review letter to investors, Nils Jenson, an energy and materials analyst at Crescat Capital, wrote that China is on the verge of both a currency crisis and a banking crisis, due to the Chinese yuan being extremely overvalued and growing credit problems at Chinese banks.

In the letter, Jenson noted that China's central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), has ballooned the nation's M2 money supply to $21.7 trillion, the largest money supply in the world. This M2 money supply is approximately 75% larger than that of the United States, despite the fact that China's total GDP is 57% less than the total U.S. GDP. Jenson argued that this contrast illustrates the severely overvalued nature of the yuan.

Overblown money printing and easy credit creation have fueled a high economic growth rate in China, but are showing signs of diminishing returns, with increased borrowing producing diminishing rates of return in China's economy. Furthermore, China's GDP growth rate is slowing at the same time that its debt growth is accelerating. One of the major warning signs of impending trouble in China's banking industry is a nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio that has mushroomed up to an alarming 22%. 

The Chinese government is essentially ignoring its increasing debt problem by extending more and more credit to prevent a free fall in the value of the yuan. In Jenson's view, this fiscal policy will ultimately fail, as pushing net capital outflows higher just puts more downside pressure on the yuan.

China's net international investment position (NIIP), a measure of the reserves a country's banking system has available to defend its currency against downward pressure from increased capital outflows, declined from $1.5 trillion in September 2015 to $1.2 trillion in January 2016. The nation's continuously increasing money supply means its NIIP relative to the M2 money supply has dropped from 15% in 2011 down to only 6% in 2016.

In short, China is running out of financial ammunition to prop up the yuan and the Chinese banking industry, and at this point, Jenson sees a major Chinese credit and currency crisis as virtually unavoidable. Estimates from him and other hedge fund managers forecast a possible 30 to 50% devaluation in the yuan.

Observations on China From Other Hedge Fund Managers

Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates points out the danger posed by the continuing reliance of the Chinese economy on new construction, which accounts for more than 50% of the total Chinese economy. In contrast, the average in developed economies in the west is just 10 to 15%. Chanos sees the Chinese economy's dependence on real estate development for growth, as opposed to growth in overall domestic demand or exports, as unsustainable in the long term.

David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital bases his bearish China stance on increasing inflation and a decline in the nation's growth rate, noting the severe downturn in the Chinese stock market as evidence of large investors pulling out of China.

Matt Hu, co-founder of F&H Fund Management, says his firm began adopting large short positions in China stocks in late 2015 as it foresaw the end of a multiyear bull market in Chinese equities. Some of the main market sectors where Hu expects declines are the automotive and retail sectors, which has F&H betting against companies such as Great Wall Motor Company Ltd. (OTC: GWLLF) and retailer Luk Fook Holdings (International) Ltd. (0590.HK).

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/060116/3-reasons-why-hedge-funds-are-bearish-china-gwllf-0590hk.asp