Trevir Nath 2016年6月17日
现在距离英国退欧公投还有不到一周时间，公投将决定英国在欧盟的去留。在经济学家和政治学家讨论公投的是非曲直时，投资者则要面对公投带来的极其不确定的影响。虽然留在欧盟不能解决英国的任何问题，但是离开欧盟可能引发国际危机。
很简单，如果英国退出欧盟将会破坏许多已经建立的贸易关系。英国需要在36个贸易协定和成千上万的关税下重新谈判进入其他市场。与此同时，英镑将随着短期内生产力的降低而对其他主要货币下跌。英国退欧公投对金融市场的影响是一个巨大的问号。只要我们密切关注英国退欧，现在为这一事件在投资组合中做出准备还不太晚。
外汇市场
自从英国退欧的想法在2015年末浮出水面，英镑对其他主要货币就接连下跌。英国不愿意改变利率使英镑进一步下跌。如果公投成功那么接下来一定会出现对英镑快速而猛烈的抛售。虽然这不会影响到该地区的旅游业，但是却不是投资者希望看到的。如果持有大量资金还不是最坏的情况，那么其贬值的影响则会非常巨大。货币的不利因素可能对从贸易和公司盈利到股票市场的任何方面产生负面影响。美元已经准备在今年加息，一旦英国退欧成功，美元的价值可能会进一步上涨。
怎样进行投资
在我们可以预见的波动中，投资者可以在退欧公投中采用多种方式盈利。经济学家担心如果退欧公投成功可能引起至少两年的市场波动。最简单的策略是根据不确定性进行对冲。这一策略能使投资者在短期中获利。一个例子是可以对追踪主要市场的指数基金或者ETF进行每日或者每月对冲。对于投资欧洲股票的投资者来说，不要在英镑上冒险，你应该关注MSCI EMU指数。这一ETF追踪一篮子欧洲蓝筹股，将能保护你受到下跌趋势的影响。同时，国内投资者可能会看到FTSE 100价值的上升。因为FTSE 100的70%成员在全球运营，货币不利因素可能会增加他们的收入和盈利，因此可能会抬高股价。
我们也能在特定的市场板块中获利，包括旅游业、能源和服务业。旅游业一定会从疲软的货币中受益，而能源生产商可以脱离欧盟昂贵的政策。另一方面，对长期投资者来说，可以买入并持有那些受影响最严重的板块。
要避免什么
不幸的是，如果退欧公投成功将会在短期能产生严重的影响。虽然一部分精明的投资者能够获利，但是大多数投资者可能会遭受严重损失。例如FTSE 250 等市场指数的投资者可能经历大幅度下跌。由于这些指数由小公司和进口商组成，将会受到英镑疲软的负面影响。疲软的英镑将会压低一些产业资产的美元价值，例如非必要消费品行业和建筑业。这些行业可能受到消费者在面临不确定性时推迟消费决定的影响。此外，货币负面影响也会使大宗商品更加昂贵，同时也使英国投资者投资外国股票的成本更加昂贵。
债券市场也可能受到影响。外国投资者会首先产生恐慌，开始抛售英国政府债券和国债。英国和德国十年期国债的收益率在今年初的增加可能就是受到某些英国退欧不确定性的影响。英国退欧对欧元区也不是个好消息，这可能发出欧盟崩溃的信号。追踪欧元区股票的道琼斯欧洲斯托克50指数将可能大幅下跌，而小型股将受到的影响将最为严重。
总结
当前的感觉是英国将投票留在欧盟。然而，如果事情发生变化并且最终英国退出欧盟，那将会产生直接的影响。市场可能会迅速做出反应，迫使投资者做出相对的反应。因此，投资者应该确保他们自己的预测结果反映在当前采用的投资策略中。
If Brexit Occurs Here's How You Should Invest
By Trevir Nath | Updated June 17, 2016 — 10:40 AM EDT
We are less than a week away from the anticipated EU referendum, which will decide whether Britain stays or leaves the European Union. As economists and politicians argue the merits of the outcome, investors have bared the burden of coping with the extra uncertainty the vote carries. While staying doesn’t necessarily solve any of the nation's troubles, leaving has the potential to spark an international crisis.
Quite simply, a vote to leave would undermine many of the established trade relationships in place. The UK would need to renegotiate its access to other markets covered by 36 trade agreements and thousands of tariff lines. Meanwhile, the sterling would continue to slide against other major currencies while productivity will decline in the short term. The Brexit's effects on the financial markets is a larger question mark. While we are on the heels of the Brexit, it’s not too late for investors to prepare their portfolios in the event of a Brexit.
The Foreign Exchange Market
Since the thought of a Brexit surfaced in late 2015, the sterling has suffered with respect to other major currencies. The United Kingdom’s reluctance to change interest rates have been partly responsible for pushing the currency lower. A vote to leave would surely be accompanied by a quick and ferocious sell-off. While this won’t be bad for tourism in the region, investors will not be pleased. If having a large cash position wasn’t bad enough, making it less valuable will have widespread effects. Currency headwinds can adversely impact anything from trade and corporate earnings to the stock market. For investors seeking a position in the FX market, the U.S. dollar could be a safe bet. The dollar is already poised to pop when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates later this year and in the event of a Brexit, its value could jump even further.
How To Invest
For the volatility we could expect to see there are a number of positions investors can take to profit given a Brexit. Economists fear a vote to leave the union could generate at least two years of volatility. The simplest strategy might be to hedge your current positions against the uncertainty. This strategy could benefit investors with a short-term horizon. One example is mainstream index funds or ETFs that track major markets and are either hedged daily or monthly. For investors wanting to carry on investing in Eurozone equities, but don’t want the risk around the pound, you could look at the MSCI EMU index. The ETF tracks a basket of large cap Eurozone blue chips stocks which can protect you from some of the downside risks. Meanwhile, domestic investors could see the FTSE 100 increase in value. With over 70% of FTSE 100 members operating globally, currency headwinds are likely to increase earnings and revenue, thereby increasing share prices
Certain sectors could also benefit, including tourism, energy, and the services industry. The tourism industry would certainly benefit from a weak currency while energy-intensive manufacturers can operate independently of the European Union’s expensive policies. Long-term investors, on the other hand, are presented with an opportunity to buy low and hold on sectors that have been most affected.
What to Avoid
Unfortunately, a vote to leave would have severe short-term ramifications. While the savviest investors will benefit, the majority will likely suffer. Investors in market indexes like the FTSE 250 will experience a large drop-off. Since the index is comprised of small companies and exporters, it will be adversely impacted by sterling weakness. A soft pound would depress the dollar value of British assets in sectors such as consumer discretionary and homebuilding. These sectors are likely to suffer as consumers postpone spending decisions in the face of uncertainty. Additionally, currency headwinds would make commodities more expensive but also make it costlier for British investors to buy foreign equities.
The bond market could also suffer. Foreign investors might panic at first, initiating a run on U.K. government bonds or gilts. The spread between ten-year yields on British gilts and German bunds have increased since the start of the year, likely pricing in some Brexit uncertainty. A Brexit will also be bad for the Eurozone, signaling a possible collapse of the union. The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index, which tracks Eurozone equities, would fall sharply in this event with small caps hit hardest.
The Bottom Line
The current sentiment is that the United Kingdom will vote to stay in the European Union. However, if things change and leaving is the final outcome, there would be immediate ramifications. The market would likely respond poorly thereby forcing investors to react accordingly. Investors should, therefore, be sure that their own forecasts of the outcome are reflected in the investment strategy they currently adopt.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/061716/if-brexit-occurs-heres-how-you-should-invest.asp