英国退欧会对美国投资者产生怎样的影响

  Tim Smith   2016年6月16日

英国将在6月23日进行公投决定是否退出欧盟。这一事件受到主流媒体的高度关注。关于英国去留的问题在英国国内产生了激烈的争论，更使去留结果很难预测。前伦敦市长Boris Johnson是英国退出欧盟的主要支持者。支持英国留在欧洲的人主要有英国首相卡梅伦、著名的跨国企业以及工业领导人和美国总统奥巴马。

如果英国公投最终决定离开欧盟，其欧盟成员身份的结算时间也不可能是2018年之前。英国必须在打算退出之前提前两年通知。尽管可以通过谈判提前退出，但是这不太可能发生，因为所需要的通知期限是为了重新构建与欧盟和包过美国在内的其他重要贸易伙伴的贸易关系。

如果退欧公投成功，那么可能会产生一个巨大不稳定时期，因为之前没有出现过先例。这一不确定性将会对英国和其欧盟贸易伙伴产生巨大影响。如果退欧成功，可能会使苏格兰重新燃起退出英国留在欧盟的兴趣。英国退欧公投也可能成为其他欧盟国家举行公投决定是否留在欧盟的先例。 

虽然有很多关于英国退欧对英国和其他欧盟成员关系的讨论，但是几乎没有关于英国退出欧盟对美国投资者影响的讨论。 

影响

多年来美国公司在英国各个领域进行了大量投资。自2000年以来英国子公司利润占美国公司全球子公司利润的9%。仅在2014年，美国公司在英国的投资总额高达1530亿美元。英国在美国公司的资产管理、国际销售和研发等基础设施发展中占有至关重要的地位。美国公司把英国视为接触更广泛欧盟市场的一个大门。英国退出欧盟可能会影响许多这样美国公司子公司的收益，他们可能会重新考虑在英国和欧盟成员国的经营。

投资欧洲银行和信贷市场的美国投资者可能受到信贷危机的影响。如果英国最终退出欧盟，欧洲银行需要更换1230亿美元的证券。此外，英国债务可能不会再包含在欧洲银行的紧急现金储备中，这将产生流动性问题。欧洲证券资产自2007年开始下降，如果英国公投决定退出欧盟，这一资产下跌情况可能会加剧。

2016年英国退欧公投之前，英镑兑美元一直处于疲软状态。如果退欧公投成功这一情况可能会加剧。如果英国退欧成功可能会把英镑兑美元的疲软传染给欧元。英镑和欧元疲软可能会影响对欧盟和英国进行出口的美国公司的盈亏，因为美国产品和服务的成本会上升，这将影响需求。 

总结 
对英国退欧的民意测验显示，投资者需要关注在英国和欧盟经营的美国公司。特别需要关注的是投资欧盟信贷市场的公司和产皮销售会受到利率密切影响公司，例如美国出口商。 

如果英国公投结果决定退出欧盟，市场可能因为不确定性出现短期的过度反应。美国投资者受到的影响需要在新的贸易和信贷协议出现之后才能确定，这需要花费一段时间。投资者必须在英国退欧事件进展期间保持谨慎。

How the Brexit Could Affect U.S. Investors

By Tim Smith | June 16, 2016 — 10:00 AM EDT

On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom is going to hold a referendum to decide if it will leave the European Union. This possible event has been dubbed the British Exit, or Brexit, by the mainstream media. There is acrimonious debate within Britain about the vote, with the stay-or-leave outcome on a knife's edge. Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, is a prominent supporter of a Brexit. The stay vote is being led by British Prime Minister David Cameron, along with prominent multinationals and leaders of industry, as well as U.S. President Barack Obama.

If Britain comes to a unanimous decision to leave the European Union, the actual date of cessation of membership is unlikely to be before 2018. The United Kingdom must give two years' notice of its intention to exit. Although an earlier exit could be negotiated, it is unlikely, as the notice period is required in order to forge future trading relationships with the European Union and other affected trading partners, including the United States.

If the Brexit vote is successful, it is likely to create a period of substantial uncertainty, as there is no clear precedent to follow. The uncertainty would also have a critical impact on U.K. and EU trading partners. If a Brexit occurs, it may renew Scotland's interest in pursuing a break from Britain for the opportunity to remain in the European Union. A Brexit may also set a precedent for other European Union states holding referendums on their membership in the European Union.

Although there is a raging debate regarding a Brexit in Britain and among European Union members, there is little discussion on how a British vote to leave the European Union may impact U.S. Investors.

Impact

Companies in the U.S. across a wide variety of sectors have made large investments in the United Kingdom over many years. American corporations have derived 9% of global foreign affiliate profit from the United Kingdom since 2000. In 2014 alone, U.S. companies invested an aggregate total of $588 billion into Britain. Output of U.S. affiliates in the United Kingdom was $153 billion in 2013. The United Kingdom plays a vital role in corporate America's global infrastructure from assets under management (AUM), international sales and research and development (R&D) advancements. American companies have viewed Britain as a gateway that provides exposure to the broader European Union. A Brexit would jeopardize the affiliate earnings of many of these companies that are strategically aligned with the United Kingdom, which may see them reconsider their operations with British and European Union members.

American companies and Investors that have exposure to European banks and credit markets may be affected by credit risk. If the vote for a Brexit eventuates, European banks may have to replace $123 billion in securities. Furthermore, U.K. debt may not be included in European banks' emergency cash reserves, creating liquidity problems. European asset-backed securities have been in decline since 2007; if Britain votes to leave the European Union, it is likely the decline would intensify.

The British pound has experienced weakness against the U.S. dollar in 2016, ahead of the Brexit. This is likely to be accentuated if the leave vote is successful. A vote for the Brexit would see a likely contagion depreciation of the euro. A weaker British pound and euro may hurt the bottom line of U.S. export companies doing business with customers in the United Kingdom and European Union, as the cost for American products and services would increase, tempering demand.

The Bottom Line

As Britain goes to the polls to vote for or against a Brexit, investors need to watch U.S. companies that are exposed to markets in the United Kingdom and the European Union. They need to pay particular attention to companies with exposure to the European credit markets and those that have sales affected by exchange rates, such as U.S. Exporters.

If Britain votes for a Brexit, the markets may see a short-term overreaction due to uncertainty surrounding the event. Ramifications facing U.S. investors are likely to take time to ensue, as new trade and credit agreements emerge. Investors must remain prudent as developments regarding a Brexit continue.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/061616/how-brexit-could-affect-us-investors.asp