汇率操控会影响普通投资者的五个原因

 Ryan Downie 2016年6月17日

美国财务部发布的2016年上半年报告中，中国、日本、韩国、台湾和德国被列入了可能违反公平汇率政策的监控名单中。名单中的国家保证加强审查以确定是否进行了利率操控提供不公平的贸易优势。如果确认这些贸易伙伴违反了公平贸易实践指南而且没有纠正这些行为，那么将会实行贸易惩罚措施。

当实施货币政策，尤其是改变全球外汇市场的政策时会发生汇率操控。当为了维护某些特定产业的人为竞争优势而采取这些行为时被认为是不正当的贸易行为。最常见的情况是人为提供一个国家的货币供应以支持其出口行业。在其他条件不变的情况下，货币贬值使一个国家的出口商品价格在所有国家下降，从而增加这些商品的国外需求。这可以刺激制造和基础材料等行业的发展，从而刺激全国经济增长。

美国公司的财务业绩

美国公司的财务业绩会受到汇率操控的巨大影响。当其他国家不公平的进行货币贬值，美国出口商在这些国家市场的竞争力就会下降，而这些国家出口商在美国市场则获得优势。美国公司发现越来越难在价格上与国外同业者竞争。即使存在竞争优势，这些因素还是会影响到企业的基本面。

对美国跨国公司来说，以外币计价的销售比例往往高于以外币计价的成本的比例。汇率操控会使美国公司的利润降低，因为如果成本不降低的话同样的销售量会降低利率。这一情况还迫使企业管理团队发布非官方调整数据控制波动。

散户投资者也会受到影响。美国投资者持有约75%以上的美国股票，因此当美国公司失去竞争优势时投资者也会受到威胁。货币不利因素抑制收益率时会使企业失去盈利能力，限制资金流动和对股息和股息上涨产生压力。调整后的数据和大型货币扭曲会使基本面研究变得复杂，给非专业人士带来额外的障碍。

美国经济现状

这些影响企业财务业绩的因素也会产生一系列的经济问题。21世纪初，中国的汇率操控使美国每年遭受几千亿美元的贸易逆差，这给就业带来了负面影响。经济政策研究所估计2001年到2013年间的中国货币贬值造成了美国320万人的失业。汇率操控使生产商和基础材料供应商业务扩展缓慢或者干脆在减少，因为他们在和外国同行的竞争中处于不利地位。这还会影响对经济增长有至关重要影响的工资和可支配收入的增长。

对美国人来说，疲软的经济会抑制投资并减少投资收入，因为投资者在不确定时期都会变得相对保守。对经济稳定性的威胁使美联储在2016年初做出了延迟加息的决定。低利率影响债券价格，这会迫使退休储蓄者参加更高风险混合收入证券以达到理想的退休收入。

资本流动

全球资本市场会受到利率操控的影响，所以汇率操控的影响远远不止贸易平衡和出口竞争。当外国货币相对美元贬值，投资者通常会在其他市场寻求更高的回报，美国股票市场成为这些逃离资本的受欢迎的目的地。一些经济学家指出，日元是美国股票市场上涨或者下跌的重要指标，因为日元升值将意味着投资汇报的上升。1995年到2015年间外国企业名下的美国公司的比例稳定上升，在这期间外国持有的美国企业债券也同样在增加。外国货币贬值影响国内市场对美国产品的需求，这可能会在美国引起市场泡沫。

5 Reasons Why Currency Manipulation Matters for Average Investors

By Ryan Downie | June 17, 2016 — 11:00 AM EDT

The U.S. Treasury Department released a semi-annual report in April 2016 in which China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Germany were placed on a monitoring list as potential violators of fair currency practices. Countries on the list warrant enhanced scrutiny to determine if they are engaged in currency manipulation, which is monetary policy that provides an unfair trade advantage. Trade penalties could ensue if it is determined that a major trade partner violates fair practice guidelines and does not rectify any of these policies.

Currency manipulation occurs when monetary policy is implemented specifically to alter a currency in global foreign exchange markets. These policies are considered unfair trade practices when they are designed to maintain an artificial competitive advantage for a certain industry in the offending country. The most common incidence involves artificially raising the supply of an economy's tender to support its export industry. All else being equal, currency devaluation makes the exports from an economy cheaper in all other economies, thereby increasing demand for these products abroad. This can stimulate sectors such as manufacturing or basic materials, sending positive results throughout the wider domestic economy.

U.S. Corporate Financial Results

The financial results of corporations based in the United States can be impacted significantly by currency manipulation. When foreign countries devalue their currencies unfairly, exporters in the U.S. become less competitive in foreign markets, and foreign exporters gain an advantage in U.S. markets. American companies find it increasingly difficult to compete with foreign peers on a price basis. These factors also threaten business fundamentals, even if a competitive advantage is maintained.

The proportion of foreign-denominated sales tends to be higher than the proportion of foreign-denominated expenses for multinational corporations based in the U.S. Currency manipulation creates a scenario in which corporate operating profits are reduced, because the same volume of sales will now result in lower top-line results without a corresponding decrease in expenses. Such conditions also prompt corporate management teams to publish unofficial adjusted figures that control for fluctuations.

Retail investors suffer as a result. American investors hold roughly more than 75% of U.S. equity shares, so investors are jeopardized when American companies lose their competitive advantage. Lost profitability due to currency headwinds dampens earnings yields, limits cash flows and creates downward pressure on dividends and dividend growth. Adjusted figures and large currency distortions can complicate the fundamental research process, creating additional barriers for non-professionals.

U.S. Economic Well-Being

The same forces that impact corporate financial results can snowball into general economic problems. Chinese currency devaluation inflated the average annual U.S. trade deficit by several hundred billion dollars throughout the early 21st century, which had a negative effect on employment. The Economic Policy Institute estimates that Chinese currency devaluation cost 3.2 million American jobs between 2001 and 2013. Manufacturers and suppliers of basic materials tend to expand slowly or even contract due to currency manipulation, because they are at a competitive disadvantage against their foreign counterparts. This can also impact the growth of wages and disposable income, which are essential to healthy economic growth in developed economies.

A weak economy can stifle investment and reduce the investable income earned by Americans, as investors tend to become more conservative in times of uncertainty. Threats to economic stability contributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to delay interest rate moderation early in 2016. Low rates impact bond prices, and retirement savers continue to be pushed toward higher-risk fixed-income securities to achieve desirable yields for retirement income.

Capital Flows

Global capital markets are impacted by currency manipulation, so the impacts extend beyond trade balance and export competitiveness. When foreign currencies depreciate relative to the dollar, investors often seek better returns in other markets, and U.S. equities markets are popular destinations for that displaced capital. Some economists have noted that the Japanese yen is a leading indicator of U.S. equity market peaks and troughs, with improving yen strength indicating repatriation of gains. The proportion of U.S. equities owned by foreign entities rose steadily from 1995 to 2015, and foreign holdings of U.S. corporate debt securities also trended upward during that period. Depreciation of foreign currency influences demand for American assets, which can cause bubbles in U.S. Markets.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/061716/5-reasons-why-currency-manipulation-matters-average-investors.asp