耶伦：退欧危机重重 加息政策谨慎

美联储主席耶伦表示，英国退欧等各类经济事件引发了全球市场动荡，因此美联储将采取谨慎的货币政策。

耶伦在参议院银行委员会上表示：“今年劳动力市场和经济增长极不稳定，因此国内的需求可能也是强弩之末。”

耶伦说：“全球经济的缺陷仍在。”

耶伦表示：“英国退欧公投会对全球经济产生巨大的影响。”但她并未给英国投票者提出任何建议。英国将在周四投票决定是否退出欧洲，而投票的预期结果则转变了多次。

耶伦指出，中国也面临着“巨大的挑战”，中国将告别出口导向型经济。

全世界的投资者们都十分活跃，放眼全球，多个国家的经济增长缓慢、通胀率低、货币政策可调，因此投资者们可能会毫无征兆地改变风险偏好。

在耶伦证词的独立报告中，美联储告知参议院调查组，“可调节”才是真正的金融缺陷。而英国退欧等外部冲击可能会极大地影响金融市场的稳定性。

在上周的会议中，美联储连续第四次推迟美元加息，这表明美联储的加息步伐要远慢于市场预期。

耶伦在会后的新闻发布会上表示，英国退欧公投是美联储陷入困境的原因之一。英国将在周四进行退欧公投。

金融市场对耶伦的证词毫无反应。美联储观察员表示，耶伦的观点与几周前的观点一致。

依据 CME 集团的美联储观察工具，金融市场认为美联储不会在十二月之前加息。

道琼斯工业指数涨至17,829，上涨了24个点。

“谨慎”是耶伦的关键词。

直到六月初，美联储议员们一直在要求加息。但是疲弱的就业数据让他们偃旗息鼓。很多经济学家认为加息可能会推迟到九月。

上周，17名美联储官员中有6名认为2016年仅会加息一次。而去年预测将有4次加息。

美联储相信经济增长的阻力终将消退，未来的加息将应势而行。耶伦认为年内美国出现经济衰退的可能性“极低”。

美联储相信劳动力市场的疲软是暂时的。

但这种乐观情绪也是会变的。

耶伦指出，罗伯特·戈登带领的杰出经济学家团队担心低迷的生产力增长会持续很长时间，从而抑制美国经济增长。

耶伦向参议员表示，即使再度出现经济危机，她也不会重新采取负利率政策。

耶伦表示：“我认为我们不一定非要调节利率，即使真的需要，负利率也不在我们考虑之内。”因为美联储调查员已经发现了负利率政策的重大缺陷。

前明尼阿波利斯联储主席、现任罗切斯特大学教授 Narayana Kocherlakota 是鸽派的主要带头人，他认为耶伦的立场有误。

美联储主席只是在小心翼翼地请求国会对“极低”的生产率加以挽救。

耶伦说：“我不会给你明确的指示，这是国会该考虑的事情。”

耶伦表示，很多经济学家们认为公共投资、劳动力发展以及技术研发是影响生产率的主要因素，因此这些问题该由国会来解决。

美国经济复苏步履维艰，很多经济学家们都很困惑，为什么当前的经济增长与以往经济衰退后的复苏不太一样。

Fed’s Yellen says risks that include Brexit justify cautious interest-rate policy

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said risks facing the economy — including a possible “Brexit” vote in Europe that could shake up global markets — justify a cautious policy approach.

In testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, Yellen said “mixed readings on the labor market and economic growth this year” suggests domestic demand might falter.

“Vulnerabilities” in the global economy also remain, she said.

“A U.K. vote to exit the European Union could have significant economic repercussions,” Yellen said, although she later said she wasn’t giving British voters any advice. The U.K. faces an in/out decision on European Union membership this Thursday and polls have shifted more than once.

China is also facing “considerable challenges” moving away from an export-led economy, she noted.

Investors around the world are jumpy and “appetite for risk can change abruptly” given the current global environment of “sluggish growth, low inflation and already very accommodative monetary policy” seen in many countries, Yellen said.

In a separate report that accompanied Yellen’s testimony, the Fed told the Senate panel that financial vulnerabilities were “moderate.” 

However, a number of possible external shocks, including the so-called Brexit, “could pose risks to financial stability.”

Last week, the Fed decided not to raise U.S. interest rates for the fourth straight meeting and indicated that future increases would most likely occur at a slower pace than markets previously thought.

At a press conference following that decision, Yellen said the Brexit vote was one factor holding the Fed at bay. The U.K. will vote on Thursday on the Brexit referendum.

Financial markets had little reaction to Yellen’s testimony. Fed watchers said her message essentially repeated what she had told reporters last week after the policy meeting.

Financial markets don’t think the Fed will raise rates until December, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 24 points to 17,829.

Like her press conference, caution was the watchword for the Fed chairwoman.

Until early June, many Fed officials were pressing for a rate hike this summer. But the weak job report for May released on June 3 changed the outlook. The Labor Department reported only 38,000 jobs were created in the month. Many economists believe the report has most likely put off any interest rate hike by the central bank until September.

Last week, the Fed revealed that six of the 17 Fed officials now see only one rate hike in 2016. This is down from four hikes predicted as recently as late last year.

In the bigger picture, Yellen said the Fed is confident that headwinds holding back the economy will “slowly fade over time” and further gradual increases in interest rates are likely to be needed.

Yellen said the chances of a recession in the U.S. this year “are quite low.”

The Fed believes that the weakness in the labor market is “transitory,” she said.

But even this optimism was tempered.

She noted that some prominent economists led by Robert Gordon, a professor at Northwestern University, are worried that recent slow productivity growth could persist, holding down U.S. economic growth.

In her comments to the Senators, Yellen backed away from using negative interest rates as a policy tool to combat any recession.

“We don’t think we are going to have to provide accommodation and if we do [negative rates] is not something on our list,” Yellen told the committee, adding Fed researchers had found “significant shortcomings in that type of approach.”

Former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, now a professor at the University of Rochester who was a leading dove on the central bank, tweeted he thought Yellen’s stance was a mistake.

The Fed chairwoman only gingerly asked Congress for help to boost “very low” worker productivity.

“I am not going to give you detailed instruction; this is up to Congress to decide,” Yellen said.

She noted that public investment, workforce development and the pace of technological progress are widely seen by economists as factors that could influence productivity and “should be on Congress’ list to focus on.”

Extremely weak productivity growth since the U.S. recovery began has confounded economists and helps explain why growth has not been as strong as is usually the case after a recession.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-yellen-says-brexit-could-have-significant-economic-repercussions-2016-06-21