英国退出欧盟将会对欧元和美元造成怎样的影响

Sean Ross  2016年7月5日

 2016年6月23日，英国选民将对是否决定离开欧盟进行投票，而所有的外汇交易员都屏气凝神的关注这一事件的发展。大多数专家认为如果英国离开欧盟，那么对英国货币来说将是一场灾难。其中猜测的结果包括英镑的崩溃和暂时轻微的兑美元和欧元的下跌。

为什么英国退欧会伤害英镑

英国退出欧盟，将引发金融和投资市场的许多不确定性。因为外汇市场的特性决定它更在意短期变化，不稳定性通常会在抛售之前出现。紧张的外汇交易员很可能会抛售英镑，购入更稳定货币，直到英国能证明在退欧后能保持稳定。

英国退欧之后另一个使英镑不稳定的因素是英国大规模的未偿还债务。截止到退欧投票生效时，英国的债务将达到1.72万亿英镑。这一金额相当于该国GDP的90%左右。如果退出欧盟引发国际货币基金组织和英国财务部预测那样的经济不景气，英国政府将面临沉重的债务压力。

如果英格兰银行使用扩张性货币政策解决债务问题或者可能的经济衰退，那么英国未来的通胀预期将会上升。这会使英镑对外汇交易员的吸引力下降。更糟糕的是，标准普尔已经发出警告，如果英国决定离开欧盟，其AAA级的信用评级可能会受到影响。

作为避险货币的美元

自从布雷顿森林会议以来，美元已经成为了事实上的全球储备货币。由于有美国政府和美国工人强大的生产力提供的信任和信用支持，美元一直以来都是外汇交易者的避险货币。

美联储相对的强硬政策增加了美元的吸引力。欧洲央行和日本央行在2016年都实行了负利率政策。尽管美元利率还处于较低水平且未来加息的可能性正在降低，美联储政策的引发的通胀仍远远低于其他央行。

欧元的不确定性

如果英国退出欧盟，可能也会引发欧元下跌。英国的离开将会威胁已经受到内部冲突和银行问题打击的欧盟政治和经济的稳定性。而这一事件发展的最终受益者无疑将是美元。

尽管如此，许多专家估计在此事件中英镑受到的伤害将大于欧元。即使欧元对美元贬值，也可能对英镑升值。两端的波动可能使欧元与真实的经济数据分离，从而价值被高估或者低估并且产生巨大波动。

另一种观点

即使英国离开欧盟，现在也不能确定英镑会下跌。外汇市场对英国退欧的准备已经进行了数月之久。许多经纪商提高了保证金要求，GBP/USD货币对已经在之前的会议创造了盈利机会。 GBP/EUR货币对也有类似的情况。

即使投票决定离开欧盟，英国政府也会有可能采取支持增长、支持贸易和其他支持货币的措施。这些事件很难预测，而起如果受到来自苏格兰和北爱尔兰的阻力，这些事件发生的几率不大。不过，议会或者卡梅伦政府可能会发出稳定事件的言论或者活动。

How Brexit Can Impact the Euro and the U.S. Dollar

By Sean Ross | July 5, 2016 — 1:00 PM EDT

On June 23, 2016, British voters will determine whether the United Kingdom will leave the European Union, and foreign exchange (forex) traders are collectively holding their breath. If the Leave movement succeeds, most experts predict tough times for the U.K. currency. Speculation ranges from an outright collapse of the British pound to a mild and temporary fall against the U.S. dollar and the euro.

Why Brexit Could Harm the Pound

The British exit, or Brexit, introduces a lot of uncertainty in financial and investment markets. Because forex markets are naturally focused on the short term, new instability usually precedes a sell-off. Nervous forex traders are likely to dump the pound, move to more stable currencies and wait until the newly independent United Kingdom proves it can be stable.

Another reason for the pound's likely struggle after Brexit is the United Kingdom's large outstanding debt. By the time the referendum vote takes place, the U.K. national debt will reach past 1.72 trillion pounds. This represents approximately 90% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). If leaving the EU triggers a recession, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and British Treasury have predicted, the British government may struggle to meet its debt obligations.

If the Bank of England (BoE) responds to debt problems or an economic slump with expansionary monetary policy, expectations of future British inflation should rise. This makes the pound less attractive in forex trades. To make matters worse, Standard & Poor's already issued a warning that Britain risks jeopardizing its AAA rating if Leave carries the vote.

The U.S. Dollar as a Safe Haven

Ever since the Bretton Woods conference, the U.S. dollar has been the de facto reserve currency for the world. Backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. federal government and strengthened by the impressive productivity of American workers, the U.S. dollar has historically been a safe haven for currency traders.

Adding to the dollar's attractiveness is the relatively hawkish policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) both started negative interest rate policies (NIRP) in 2016. Even though the Fed remains in extremely low territory and expectations of future rate hikes have diminished, its policy is still less inflationary than rival central banks.

Uncertainty With the Euro

There is also potential for a euro flight if the United Kingdom pulls out. Losing the United Kingdom threatens the political and economic stability of the entire EU, which already suffers from internal conflict and banking issues. The clear winner from ongoing drama in the continent would be the U.S. Dollar.

Nevertheless, most experts still predict a Brexit to hurt the pound more than the dollar. Even if the euro weakens against the dollar, it might see gains against the pound. Volatility on both ends could decouple the euro from real economic data, creating overvaluation or undervaluation and setting up forex markets for a bumpy ride.

An Alternative Argument

Even if the United Kingdom leaves the EU, it is not certain that the pound will sink. Forex markets have been bracing for the Brexit over several months. Many brokers raised their margin requirements, and the GBP/USD pair already created profit opportunities during prior sessions. There are similar characteristics in the GBP/EUR pair.

There is also the possibility of the U.K. government announcing pro-growth, pro-trade and other currency-friendly measures in the event of a Leave vote. It is difficult to predict such events, and it might be unlikely if the government in London receives pushback from Scotland or Northern Ireland on divergent policy. Still, there may be opportunity for stabilizing rhetoric or activity from Parliament or the Cameron administration.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/070516/how-brexit-can-impact-euro-and-us-dollar.asp