黄金，另一种货币

纵观历史，黄金一直在人类社会扮演着非常重要的角色，在后金本位时期的21世纪初期，由于不稳定因素的出现，一些人认为我们应该重新采用金本位制度。在实行金本位制度的19世纪和20世纪存在着一些硬伤，而且许多人没有意识到在当前的自由市场体系中，黄金也是一种货币。通常认为黄金与美元相对的，主要是因为它由美元定价，而且二者之间有一个粗略的反向关系。当我们把黄金价格简单的看成一个汇率的时候，我们必须注意到这些因素：我们可以使用把美元兑换成日元的相同方式把纸币兑换成黄金。

 

黄金是一种货币

在自由市场体系中黄金是一种货币，尽管它通常不被人们视为货币。黄金具有一个价格，而这个价格会相对于其他货币波动，例如美元、欧元和日元。黄金可以被购买和储藏，尽管它通常不会用于日常的直接付款，但是其高流动性使其能相对很容易的兑换成任何货币。

 

因此，黄和其他货币一样具有波动的趋势。当其他货币或者资产类别表现良好时，其价格可能会下降。当人们对纸币信心减弱、可能将会爆发战争或者对华尔街类型交易工具缺乏信心时黄金会表现良好。例如，当英国选民投票决定离开欧盟时，英镑跌到自1985年以来的最低点，而黄金价格在公投之后的两周内上涨超过10%。

 

现在黄金可以以多种方式进行交易，包括购买实物黄金、期货合约、黄金ETF、或者投资者可以通过购买差价合约仅仅参与其价格波动而不用持有黄金。

 

黄金和美元

一直以来，黄金和美元的关系都十分有趣。在长期中，美元贬值意味着金价上涨。在短期中，这一规律不一定适用，因为其联系可能很微弱。

 

美元与黄金的关系源自于布雷顿森林体系，在其中国际支付是使用美元结算的并且美国政府承诺以固定的黄金比例兑换美元。虽然布雷顿森林体系在1971年被废除，美国仍然是一个全球最具影响力的国家。因此当人们谈论到黄金时，通常也会谈论到美元。

 

谈到黄金和美元的关系，就像对其他任何货币一样，要牢记黄金和货币都是运动的而且不仅仅只有一种含义。以黄金为例，它不仅仅受到通货膨胀、美元或者战争的影响。黄金是一种全球性的大宗商品，因此黄金反应全球市场情绪，不仅仅是一个经济体或者一群人的情绪。

 

金本位中存在的问题

当把黄金当作一种货币时，许多人支持重新采用金本位制度。但是在以前执行（19世纪到1971年）的金本位制度中也存在着许多问题。

 

其中一个主要问题是该体系最终依赖中央银行“遵守规则”。这些规则要求中央银行调整贴现率，使黄金适当的流入和流出，以便能使汇率与贸易伙伴相同。虽然许多国家都遵守这一规则，但是还是有一些例外，例如法国和比利时。任何体系都要求所有参与方的配合，金本位也不例外。

 

第二个问题是虽然金本位能维持长期的价格稳定，但是经济体还是需要面临短期的价格冲击。1848年加州黄金的发现是一个典型的价格冲击例子。黄金的发现增加了货币供应，提高了支出和价格水平，造成了短期不稳定。虽然这一现象能被适当的立法中和，但是需要注意的是金本位时期也出现过经济不稳定，而且所有试图维持金本位制度的努力都没有奏效。

 

黄金作为货币的再次探讨

后金本位时代的自由市场体系基本上允许黄金成为一种货币。这意味通常被作为避险手段的黄金是一个不稳定性的指标。投资黄金使交易者和个人能在经济不定时对财产进行一定的自我保护。正如上面提到的，任何体系都会发生经济动荡，金本位也一样。人们有时候会因为汇率有利跨境在另一个国家购买商品，我们也应该以这个角度看待黄金。有时候持有黄金是有利的，其他时候黄金的整体趋势可能会是消极的。尽管官方的金本位制度已经不复存在，黄金还是受到货币和全球情绪的影响。因此，黄金必须以和货币一样的方式交易。

 

至于有过国家不遵守规则这个问题，这在任何体系中都会存在。但是至少在自由市场体系中，国家会因为不遵守协议在长期中受到处罚。

 

不管采用何种体系，其有效性取决于投资者对该体系的信任度。金本位制度的诱惑源自纸币受到某些实物支撑的错觉。虽然黄金既不能吃也不能用来建造房屋，但是其价值对大众对全球市场的认知具有重大影响。自由市场允许那些想要使用黄金的人将它当成一种货币，而纸币是由那些接受纸币购买商品和服务的人支撑的。这种观念受到了广告的加强：广告不仅仅对产品进行推销，而且通过提供价格重申了使用纸币购买产品和服务的理念。黄金不需要用货币表示价格，除非是在有利时期进行大宗商品或者货币的投资。

 

通过购买实物黄金，人们可以在全球经济不稳定时期进行自我保护。任何货币都会出现趋势和逆转，黄金也不例外。黄金是针对纸币潜在威胁的一种保护性投资。一旦威胁成为现实，黄金提供的优势可能已经消失。因此，黄金具有前瞻性，而那些投资黄金的人也必须具有前瞻性。

 

总结

在自由市场体系中，黄金应当被视为和美元、欧元或者日元一样的货币。黄金与美元有长期联系，而且长远看来，黄金通常与美元反方向运动。由于市场不稳定的出现，出现创建另一个金本位制度的讨论也非常正常，但是金本位也并非是一个完美的体系。我们可以把黄金当成一种货币并且作为对冲纸币和经济风险的手段进行交易，但是我们必须知道黄金具有前瞻性，如果等到灾难出现且其价格已经开始反映不景气的经济现状，黄金将不能提供任何优势。

 

Gold: The Other Currency

By Cory Mitchell | Updated July 7, 2016 — 10:52 AM EDT

 

Throughout the ages, gold has captivated societies, and in a post-gold-standard world, many feel that with the instability that occurred in the first decade of the 21st century, some form of the gold standard should be brought back. There were inherent problems with the gold standards implemented in the 19th and 20th centuries, and many people are failing to realize that gold, under the current free market system, is a currency. Gold has often been thought of in relation to the U.S. dollar, mainly because it is usually priced in U.S. dollars, and there is a rough inverse correlation between the USD and gold prices. These factors must be considered when we see that the price of gold is simply an exchange rate: In the same way one could exchange U.S. dollars for Japanese yen, a paper currency can also be exchanged for gold. 

 

Gold Is a Currency

Under a free market system, gold is a currency, although it is not often thought of as one. Gold has a price and that price will fluctuate relative to other forms of exchange, such as the U.S. dollar, the euro or the Japanese yen. Gold can be bought and stored, and while it is not often used as a direct payment method for everyday use, it is highly liquid and can be converted to cash in almost any currency with relative ease.

 

Gold, therefore, has tendencies like those of a currency. There are times when gold is likely to move higher and times when other currencies or asset classes are likely to outperform. Gold is likely to perform well when confidence in paper currencies is waning, when there is potential for war and/or when there is a lack of confidence in Wall Street-type trading instruments. For example, when the UK voted to leave the EU, the British pound sterling plummeted to the lowest level since 1985, while gold soared over 10% in the two weeks following the referendum.

 

Gold can now be traded in multiple ways, including buying physical gold, futures contracts, a gold ETFs, or investors can participate in just the price movements without owning the underlying asset by purchasing a contract for difference (CFD). 

 

Gold and the U.S. Dollar

Gold and the USD have always had an interesting relationship. Over the long term, a declining dollar has meant rising gold prices. In the short term, this is not always true, and the relationship can be tenuous at best, as the following two-year weekly chart demonstrates. Notice the correlation indicator in Figure 1, which moves from a strong negative correlation to a strong positive correlation and back again.

 

The U.S. dollar's relationship to gold prices can be linked to the Bretton Woods System, where international settlements were made in U.S. dollars and the U.S. government promised to redeem dollars at a fixed gold rate. While the Bretton Woods system was dissolved in 1971, the U.S. remains a global power today; therefore, when gold is discussed, talk of the U.S. dollar usually ensues.

 

While gold and the U.S. dollar share a relationship, as any major currencies do, it is important to remember that gold and currencies are dynamic and have more than one simple input. Gold, for example, is impacted by far more than just inflation, the U.S. dollar or war. Gold is a global commodity and therefore, gold reflects global sentiment, not simply the sentiment of one economy or group of people.

 

Problems with the Former Gold Standards

When considering gold as a currency, many people support moving back to an adapted form of the gold standard. There were various problems with the gold standards that were implemented between the 1800s and 1971 .

 

One of the main problems was that the systems were ultimately reliant on central banks to "play by the rules." The rules required central banks to adjust the discount rate to allow for proper inflow and outflow of gold to bring the exchange rate back to par with trading partners. While many countries followed the rules, several did not - namely France and Belgium. Any system requires the cooperation of the parties involved, and the gold standard was no exception.

 

A second problem with the gold standard was that while it did maintain average price stability over the long run, there were still short-term price shocks that needed to be absorbed by economies. The California gold discovery of 1848 is a prime price shock example. The gold find increased the money supply, which raised expenditures and price levels, creating a short-run of instability. While this could be counteracted with the proper protocol, it should be noted that economic disruptions did occur during gold standard times, and no attempts to sustain a gold standard have lasted.

 

Gold as a Currency - Revisited

A post gold-standard free market system basically allows gold to act as a currency. This means gold, often referred to as a "safe haven," is an indicator of uncertainty. Gold allows traders and individuals to invest in a commodity that can often partially shelter them from economic disruptions. As mentioned above, disruptions will occur under any system, even a gold standard. Just as there are times when it pays to cross a border to buy goods in another country because of a favorable exchange rate, gold should also be viewed in this way. There are times when it is favorable to own gold and other times when the overall trend in gold will be benign or negative. Even though the official gold standards now gone, gold continues to be impacted by currencies and global sentiment; therefore, gold must be traded in the same way as a currency is traded.

 

As for the problem of countries not playing by the rules, this is likely a problem that will not go away under any system. But at least under a free market currency system, over the long run, countries are penalized for not adhering to protocols.

 

No matter what system is in use, its effectiveness relies on investors' belief in the system. The lure of the gold standard is that it provides the illusion that paper money is backed by something substantial. Yet gold can neither be eaten, nor can one build a house from it, making its value a matter of the mass perception of the global market place. Free markets allow gold to act as a currency for those who wish to use it, while other currencies are backed by those who accept that paper money will pay for goods and services. This belief is reinforced by advertising: An ad not only promotes a product, but by providing a price, it reaffirms the idea that paper money buys goods and services. Gold need not enter the equation, except for those who wish to invest in a commodity/currency during times when it is advantageous to do so.

 

By purchasing gold, people can shelter themselves from times of global economic uncertainty. Trends and reversals occur in any currency, and this holds true for gold as well. Gold is a proactive investment to hedge against potential threats to paper currency. Once the threat materializes, the advantage gold can offer may have already disappeared. Therefore, gold is forward-looking, and those who trade it must be forward-looking as well.

 

The Bottom Line

Under a free market system, gold should be viewed as a currency like the euro, yen or U.S. dollar. Gold has a long-standing relationship with the U.S. dollar and over the long term, gold will generally move inversely to it. With instability in the market, it is common to hear talk of creating another gold standard, but a gold standard isn't a flawless system. Viewing gold as a currency and trading it as such can mitigate risks to paper currency and the economy, but people must be aware that gold is forward-looking, and if one waits until disaster strikes, it may not provide an advantage if it has already moved to a price that reflects a slumping economy. 

 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/10/gold-the-other-currency.asp