投资黄金的8个原因

Tony Daltorio  2016年7月11日

黄金因其价值和丰富的历史受到全世界的欢迎，它已经融入到我们的文化中几千年。含金的硬币在公元前800年左右出现，纯金币在大约300之后的吕底亚科里萨斯国王时期出现。纵观历史，人们一直因不同的原因投资黄金。下面是8个在当代投资黄的原因。

悠长的持有价值

与纸质货币不同，金币或者其他黄金资产能在时间流逝中保存价值。人们把黄金当作一种传承方式并利用它把财富传递给下一代。

美元疲软

虽然美元是当今世界最重要的储备货币，当美元在1998年和2008年相对其他主要货币贬值时，人们纷纷从美元涌向相对安全的黄金，这抬高了黄金的价格。黄金价格从1998年到2008年几乎翻了三倍，在2008年初达到了1000美元每盎司的里程碑，并且到2012年价格几乎又翻倍，达到了1800至1900美元大关。美元贬值的原因有很多，包括该国庞大的预算和贸易赤字以及货币供应的大量增加。

通货膨胀

黄金一直以来都被当作通胀的良好对冲手段，因为其价格会随着生活成本的上升而上涨。在过去50年中人们多次见证了高通胀时期的黄金价格上涨和股票价格下跌。

通货紧缩

通货紧缩是指在一定时间内价格下降、商业活动放缓并且经济体债务负担过重，自从20世纪30年代的经济大萧条之后就没发生过这种情况。在当时，随着其他价格的大幅下降黄金的相对购买力大幅上涨。

地缘政治的不确定性

黄金不仅仅能在金融形势不确定时保存价值，同样也能在地缘政治具有不确定性时维持价值。它经常被称为“危机商品”，因为局势变得紧张时人们通常会涌向相对安全的黄金。在这些时期，黄金的表现往往会好于其他投资商品。例如，今年欧盟发生的危机而引起了几次主要的黄金价格运动。黄金价格往往在民众对政府信心降低时上涨。

供应限制

在20世纪90年代以来市场上的大部分黄金供应来自央行金库中的金条。2008年全球央行对黄金的出售量开始降低。与此同时，自2000年开始黄金的开采产量开始降低。BullionVault.com的数据显示，2000年黄金产量为2573公吨，到2007年下降到了2444公吨。一个新的金矿投产可能需要5到10年的时间。一般来说，黄金供应的减少势必使其价格上涨。

需求增加

前几年的新兴市场财富增长增加了黄金的需求。在许多新兴市场国家中，黄金已经融入了他们的文化。印度是世界上最大的黄金消费国之一，黄金在该国有包括珠宝制造在内的许多用途。例如，印度的婚礼通常在10月举行，那时全球黄金的需求量将达到最高水平。在中国，金条是一种传统的储蓄方式，该国对黄金的需求一直很大。

投资者对黄金的需求同样也在增长。许多人发现大宗商品，尤其是黄金，应当被放置在投资分类中。事实上，SPDR Gold Trust已经成为美国最大的ETF之一，并在其成立仅仅4年之后的2008年就成为世界上最大的黄金持有者。

分散投资

分散投资的关键是寻找一种与其他投资产品关系不密切相关的产品，而黄金恰恰与股票和其他金融工具成相反关系。近代历史证明了这一点。

20世纪70年代是黄金的黄金时期，但是股票表现却很糟糕。

20世纪80年代和90年代股票变现良好，但是黄金表现不佳。

2008年股票价格大跌，投资者转向黄金。

适当多样化的投资者同时投资黄金与股票和债券以减小整体波动和风险。

总结

黄金应该是一个多样化投资组合的重要组成部分，因为在引起账面投资（例如股票和债券）价格下跌的事件中黄金的价格会上涨。尽管黄金价格会在短期内波动，但是它一直能在长期中保存价值。多年来，黄金一直是通货膨胀和货币贬值的一种对冲手段，因此黄金是一种值得考虑的投资。

8 Reasons To Own Gold

By Tony Daltorio | Updated July 11, 2016 — 4:03 PM EDT

Gold is respected throughout the world for its value and rich history, which has been interwoven into cultures for thousands of years. Coins containing gold appeared around 800 B.C., and the first pure gold coins were struck during the rein of King Croesus of Lydia about 300 years later. Throughout the centuries, people have continued to hold gold for various reasons. Below are eight reasons to own gold today.

A History of Holding Its Value

Unlike paper currency, coins or other assets, gold has maintained its value throughout the ages. People see gold as a way to pass on and preserve their wealth from one generation to the next.

Weakness of the U.S. Dollar

Although the U.S. dollar is one of the world's most important reserve currencies, when the value of the dollar falls against other currencies as it did between 1998 and 2008, this often prompts people to flock to the security of gold, which raises gold prices . The price of gold nearly tripled between 1998 and 2008, reaching the $1,000-an-ounce milestone in early 2008 and nearly doubling between 2008 and 2012, hitting around the $1800-$1900 mark. The decline in the U.S. dollar occurred for a number of reasons, including the country's large budget and trade deficits and a large increase in the money supply.

Inflation

Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation, because its price tends to rise when the cost of living increases. Over the past 50 years investors have seen gold prices soar and the stock market plunge during high-inflation years.

Deflation

Deflation, a period in which prices decrease, business activity slows and the economy is burdened by excessive debt, has not been seen globally since the Great Depression of the 1930s. During that time, the relative purchasing power of gold soared while other prices dropped sharply.

Geopolitical Uncertainty

Gold retains its value not only in times of financial uncertainty, but in times of geopolitical uncertainty. It is often called the "crisis commodity," because people flee to its relative safety when world tensions rise; during such times, it often outperforms other investments. For example, gold prices experienced some major price movements this year in response to the crisis occurring in the European Union. Its price often rises the most when confidence in governments is low.

Supply Constraints

Much of the supply of gold in the market since the 1990s has come from sales of gold bullion from the vaults of global central banks. This selling by global central banks slowed greatly in 2008. At the same time, production of new gold from mines had been declining since 2000. According to BullionVault.com, annual gold-mining output fell from 2,573 metric tons in 2000 to 2,444 metric tons in 2007 (however, according to Goldsheetlinks.com, gold saw a rebound in production with output hitting nearly 2,700 metric tons in 2011.) It can take from five to 10 years to bring a new mine into production. As a general rule, reduction in the supply of gold increases gold prices.

Increasing Demand

In previous years, increased wealth of emerging market economies boosted demand for gold. In many of these countries, gold is intertwined into the culture. India is one of the largest gold-consuming nations in the world; it has many uses there, including jewelry. As such, the Indian wedding season in October is traditionally the time of the year that sees the highest global demand for gold (though it has taken a tumble in 2012.) In China, where gold bars are a traditional form of saving, the demand for gold has been steadfast.

Demand for gold has also grown among investors. Many are beginning to see commodities, particularly gold, as an investment class into which funds should be allocated. In fact, SPDR Gold Trust, became one of the largest ETFs in the U.S., as well as one of the world's largest holders of gold bullion in 2008, only four years after its inception.

Portfolio Diversification

The key to diversification is finding investments that are not closely correlated to one another; gold has historically had a negative correlation to stocks and other financial instruments. Recent history bears this out:

The 1970s was great for gold, but terrible for stocks.

The 1980s and 1990s were wonderful for stocks, but horrible for gold.

2008 saw stocks drop substantially as consumers migrated to gold.

Properly diversified investors combine gold with stocks and bonds in a portfolio to reduce the overall volatility and risk.

The Bottom Line

Gold should be an important part of a diversified investment portfolio because its price increases in response to events that cause the value of paper investments, such as stocks and bonds, to decline. Although the price of gold can be volatile in the short term, it has always maintained its value over the long term. Through the years, it has served as a hedge against inflation and the erosion of major currencies, and thus is an investment well worth considering.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/08/reasons-to-own-gold.asp