全球前10大经济体

 Prableen Bajpai 2016年7月18日

现在全球的收入分配极不平衡，当今世界前10大经济体的GDP占全球GDP总量的66%，而前15大经济体相加则超过75%。剩余172个国家相加仅占25%。

下面列出了以名义GDP为标准的全球10大经济体。该排名与使用购买平价测量的GDP标准不同。一般来说，发达国家的名义GDP与以购买力平价为基础的GDP差距更小。而这一差距在发展中国家则更大，以购买力平价为基础的GDP更大。这一列表来世国际货币基金组织数据，该数据每年更新两次。

1.美国

按照名义GDP计算，美国是世界上最大的经济体。17.95万亿的美国GDP经济占世界生产总值的24.5%。美国是一个经济超级大国，具有高度发达的技术和基础设施并拥有丰富的自然资源。然而，以购买力平价为基础的美国GDP以微小弱势丧失了世界第一经济体的地位。按那种算法，中国19.4万亿的GDP超过美国的17.95万亿。然而，美国55805美元的人均国内生产总值远远超过中国的14107美元。

2.中国

中国在20世纪70年代从中央计划的封闭经济转变为一个制造业和出口中心。中国的经济主要是由服务业和制造业共同推动的（各占约45%），农业板块则贡献了10%。按照基于购买力平价的GDP计算，中国经济已经超过了美国。然而，这一数据与名义GDP还有很大差距。中国目前的名义GDP为10.98万亿美元，尽管其经济增长速度已经下降，但是近年来一直以7%的速度增长。

3.日本

以名义GDP计算，日本经济排名第三，但是如果以基于购买力平价的GDP计算则跌到第四位。该国经济自2008年起进入苦难时期，当时首次出现了经济大衰退的迹象。尽管政府的刺激手段使经济小幅复苏，2011年的大地震又给这个脆弱的经济带来了沉重的打击。目前其经济增长速度在0.5%到2%之间徘徊，但是据估计未来六年都将低于1%。日本的名义GDP为4.12万亿美元，以购买力平价为基础的GDP为4.83亿美元，人均国内生产总值为38054美元。

4.德国

德国是欧洲最大和最强的经济体。它的名义GDP在全球排名第四。德国的经济以出口机械、汽车、家电用品和化工用品闻名。德国具有技术熟练的劳动力，但是它正和欧洲其他国家一样面临着人口结构方面的问题。其名义GDP规模为3.36万亿美元，以购买力平价为基础的GDP为3.84万亿美元，国内人均生产总值为4.6893亿美元，近年来经济增长速度在1%到2%之间，并且据预测这种速度将持续下去。

5.英国

英国2.85万亿的GDP排在全球第五位。英国经济主要由服务业驱动，该板块占其全部GDP的75%以上。农业板块仅为1%，制造业是其GDP贡献第二大的产业。尽管农业不是GDP的主要贡献因素，其60%的食品是国内产出的，虽然只有不到2%的劳动力从事这一行业。在2016年的公投中选民决定退出欧盟之后，英国经济的不确定性增加，英国和法国的排名可能会调换。英国在正式宣布退出欧盟之前的两年将继续执行欧盟条例和贸易协议，之后将运行新的贸易协议。经济学家估计英国退欧将对其产生2.2%到9.5%的GDP损失，取决于替代当前单一市场结构的贸易协议。

6.法国

接受游客最多的国家法国，以2.42亿美元的GDP排在第六位。其以购买力平价为基础的GDP约为2.65万亿。法国的贫穷比例非常低而且生活水平很高，这反映在其41180美元的人均国内生产总值上。该国是世界上的进出口大国。法国经济增长在过去几年出现放缓，政府承受着重新推动经济的巨大压力，2015年该国的失业率高达10.35%。国际货币基金组织预测法国经济会在接下来的六年恢复增长，失业率也将下降。

7.印度

在以购买力平价为基础的排名中印度排在第三位，而其名义GDP以2.09万亿排在第七位。过大的人口总量使其国内人均生产总值仅为6.162美元。与西方相比，印度的GDP仍然对农业的依赖非常大（17%）。然而，服务业近年来增长迅速，现在已经占GDP的57%，而工业占26%。印度的经济依赖出口，储蓄率非常高，人口优势巨大，中产阶级正在增加。印度已经超过中国成为世界上增长最快的经济体。

8.意大利

意大利1.16万亿的名义GDP排在全球第八位。意大利是欧元区的重要经济体，但是它受到了该地区债务危机的严重影响。该国经济因巨额的政府债务受创（约占GDP的135.8%），并且其银行系统濒临崩溃并急需救援。该国的失业率也非常高，但是在2015年出现了2011年后的首次经济增长。该国政府正在采取各种手段刺激近年来不断萎缩的经济。以购买力平价测定的GDP为2.17万亿美元，国内人均生产总值为35708美元。

9.巴西

巴西名义GDP为1.77万亿，是世界上第九大经济体。巴西经济具有发达的服务业、制造业和农业，对GDP的贡献分别为68%、26%和6%。巴西是金砖四国之一，并且曾经被预测将成为世界增长最快的经济体之一。然而2015年的衰退使巴西从世界排名的第七跌到了第九，2015年其经济增长为-3.8%。国际货币基金组织预测在2018年之前不会出现正增长，并且该国的失业率将从3%增长到10.4%。以购买力平价测定的巴西GDP为3.19万亿，其国人人均生产总值为15614美元。

10.加拿大

加拿大以1.55万亿的名义GDP超过俄罗斯排在了第十位。加拿大经济以服务业为导向，并且二战后制造业和石油板块增长迅速。然而，该国很容易受到大宗商品价格的影响，2015年油价的下跌使其经济增长速度从前一年的2.5%下降到1.2%。以购买力平价测量的该国GDP为1.6万亿，人均国内生产总值为45553美元。

总结

一些其他国家的经济也超过了万亿美元的大关，他们也有潜力进入排名的前十位，这些国家是韩国（1.38万亿）、俄罗斯（1.32万亿）、澳大利亚（1.22万亿）、西班牙（1.2万亿）和墨西哥（1.14万亿）。前十经济体的后四名经过重新排列，并且加拿大将俄罗斯从第九位挤到第11位。

The World's Top 10 Economies

By Prableen Bajpai, CFA (ICFAI) | Updated July 18, 2016 

The inequitable distribution of income is present at the global level where the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of the top 10 economies adds up to over 66% of the world’s economy, and the top 15 economies add up to over 75%. The remaining 172 countries constitute only 25% of the world’s economy.

Here’s the list of the top 10 economies based on the criteria of GDP, current prices (U.S. dollars) which is simply known as nominal GDP. The rankings differ if the same list is prepared using the GDP based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP). As a general rule, developed countries have a smaller gap between their nominal GDP (i.e., current prices) and GDP based on PPP. The difference is greater in developing countries, which tend to have a higher GDP when valued on purchasing-power-parity basis. This list is based on IMF data, which is updated twice annually.

1. United States

The U.S. economy is the largest in the world in terms of nominal GDP (measured at current prices in U.S. dollars). The $17.95 trillion U.S. economy is approximately 24.5% of the gross world product. The United States is an economic superpower that is highly advanced in terms of technology and infrastructure and has abundant natural resources. However, the U.S. economy loses its spot as the number one economy by a slight margin to China when measured in terms of GDP based on PPP. In these terms, China’s GDP is $19.4 trillion and the U.S. GDP is $17.95 trillion. However, the U.S. is way ahead of China in terms of GDP per capita(PPP) - approximately $55,805 in the U.S. versus $14,107 in China.

2. China

China has transformed itself from a centrally planned closed economy in the 1970's to a manufacturing and exporting hub over the years. The Chinese economy is propelled by an equal contribution from manufacturing and services (45% each, approximately) with a 10% contribution by the agricultural sector. The Chinese economy overtook the U.S. economy in terms of GDP based on PPP. However, the difference between the economies in terms of nominal GDP remains large. China is currently a $10.98 trillion economy and has been growing at around 7% in the recent years, although that growth is starting to slow down.

3. Japan

Japan’s economy ranks third in terms of nominal GDP, while it slips to fourth spot when comparing the GDP by purchasing-power-parity. The economy has been facing hard times since 2008, when it was first showed recessionary symptoms. Though the government’s stimulus packages have helped the economy recover a bit, the massive earthquake in 2011 gave the fragile economy another jolt. Economic growth has hovered between 0.5–2% in recent times, but is forecasted to stay below 1% during the next six years. The nominal GDP of Japan is $4.12 trillion, its GDP (PPP) is $4.83 trillion, and its GDP (PPP) per capita is $38,054.

4. Germany

Germany is Europe’s largest and strongest economy. On the world scale, it ranks as the fourth largest economy in terms of nominal GDP. Germany’s economy is known for its exports of machinery, vehicles, household equipment, and chemicals. Germany has a skilled labor force, but the economy faces demographic challenges like most European nations. The size of its nominal GDP is $3.36 trillion, while its GDP in terms of purchasing-power-parity is $3.84 trillion. Germany’s GDP (PPP) per capita is $46,893, and the economy has moved at a moderate pace of 1-2% in recent years and is forecasted to stay that way.

5. United Kingdom

The United Kingdom, with a $2.85 trillion GDP, is the world’s fifth largest. The economy of the UK is primarily driven by services, as the sector contributes more than 75% of the GDP. With agriculture contributing a minimal 1%, manufacturing is the second most important contributor to GDP. Although agriculture is not a major contributor to GDP, 60% of its food needs is produced domestically, even though less than 2% of its labor force is employed in the sector. After the referendum in June 2016 when voters decided to leave the European Union, economic prospects for the UK are highly uncertain, and the UK and France may swap places. The country will operate under EU regulations and trade agreements for two years after the formal announcement of an exit to the European Council, in which time officials will work on a new trade agreement. Economists have estimated that a Brexit could result in a loss of anywhere from 2.2-9.5% of GDP, depending on the trade agreements replacing the current single market structure.

6. France

France, the most visited country in the world, is the sixth largest economy with a nominal GDP of $2.42 trillion. Its GDP in terms of PPP is around $2.65 trillion. France has a low poverty rate and high standard of living, which is reflected in its GDP (PPP) per capita of $41,180. The country is among the top exporters and importers in the world. France has experienced a slowdown over the past few years and the government is under immense pressure to rekindle the economy, as well as combat high unemployment which reached 10.35% in 2015. According to IMF forecasts the country's GDP growth rate is expected to rise over the next six years, and unemployment is expected to go down.

7. India

India ranks third in GDP in terms of purchasing-power-parity ($7.97 trillion), while its nominal GDP ($2.09 trillion) puts it in a seventh place. The country’s high population drags its GDP (PPP) per capita down to $6,162. India’s GDP is still dependent on agriculture (17%), compared to western countries. However, the services sector has picked up in recent years and now accounts for 57% of the GDP, while industry contributes 26%. The economy’s strength lies in a limited dependence on exports, high saving rates, favorable demographics, and a rising middle class. India recently overtook China as the fastest growing large economy.

8. Italy

Italy’s $1.16 trillion economy is the world’s eighth largest in terms of nominal GDP. Italy is among the prominent economies of the eurozone, but it has been impacted by the debt crisis in the region. The economy suffers from a huge public debt estimated to be about 135.8% of GDP, and its banking system is close to a collapse and in need of a bail-out/bail-in. The economy is also facing high unemployment, but saw a positive economic growth in 2015 for the first time since 2011. The government is working on various measures to boost the economy that has contracted in recent years. The GDP measured in purchasing-power-parity for the economy is estimated at $2.17 trillion, while its per capita GDP (PPP) is $35,708.

9. Brazil

Brazil with its $1.77 trillion economy, it is the ninth largest economy by nominal GDP. The Brazilian economy has developed services, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors with each sector contributing around 68%, 26%, and 6% respectively. Brazil is one of the BRIC countries, and was projected to continue to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, the recession in 2015 caused Brazil to go from seventh to ninth place in the world economies ranking, with a negative growth rate of 3.8%. The IMF does not expect positive growth until 2018, and the unemployment rate is expected to grow over 3% – to 10.4% – over the same time period. The Brazilian GDP measured in purchasing-power-parity is $3.19 trillion, while its GDP per capita (PPP) is $15,614.

10. Canada

Canada pushed Russia off the list with a nominal GDP of $1.55 trillion. Canada has a highly service oriented economy, and has had solid growth in manufacturing as well as in the oil and petroleum sector since the Second World War. However, the country is very exposed to commodity prices, and the drop in oil prices kept the economy from growing more than 1.2% in 2015 (down from 2.5% the previous year). The GDP measured in purchasing-power parity is $1.6 trillion, and the GDP per capita (PPP) is $45,553.

The Bottom Line

Some other economies that are a part of the “trillion-dollar” club and have the potential to make it to the top 10 going ahead are South Korea ($1.38 trillion), Russia ($1.32 trillion), Australia ($1.22 trillion), Spain ($1.2 trillion), and Mexico ($1.14 trillion). The bottom four countries have been rearranged and Canada pushed out Russia which went from ninth to twelfth place (read more about Russia's economy here.)

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022415/worlds-top-10-economies.asp