日本经济刺激政策落空 日元汇率暴涨

亚洲交易时间星期二，日元兑其他货币的汇率进一步上涨，兑美元的汇率达到了七月中旬以来的最高点，因为投资者对东京经济政策的预期可能会落空。

美元/日元货币对在亚洲交易时间内呈下行趋势，跌破了104.32日元。这比纽约周一晚间的105.81日元还要低。

欧元/日元自116.50日元跌至114.78日元，而英镑日元则由139.03日元升至136.87日元。澳元和新西兰元兑日元的汇率皆有上升。

周二早间的日经每日财经报告指出，日本将在未来的几年中直接投入6万亿日元（合570亿美元），是最初计划的两倍。包括贷款业务在内的总额可能会超过20万亿日元。

该报道推动美元/日元上涨至106.15日元，但随后美元迅速回吐涨幅。驻东京的交易员和交易商加入了悲观派阵营，认为日本中央和地方政府的支出规模实际上将低于投资者预期。

三菱日联摩根士丹利首席外汇策略师植野大作指出：“仔细阅读这篇报道就会发现，这是日本政府几年的开支计划，而不是一年；一些投资者认为，虽然从表面上看日本政府的刺激力度很大，但是每年的额外开支部分并不太大。”

美元上周一度升至107.49日元高点，原因是投资者对日本政府将公布积极刺激计划的预期不断升温，特别是在日本首相安倍晋三本月早些时候与前美联储主席伯南克会晤后。前美联储主席伯南克是货币化的倡导者。

植野大作称：“由于对日本央行宽松政策的不切实际的幻想，日元兑美元曾一路升至107日元，目前正在从该水平回调。”

植野大作指出，美国联邦公开市场委员会将在本周晚些时候同日本央行展开会议，投资者们不愿在会议前大举建仓，美元或围绕105日元呈区间波动。

而其他的货币对，如欧元/美元的成交价则由1.0997美元跌至1.0844美元。

华尔街美元指数则为84.70，下跌了0.38%。

Yen surges against dollar, other rivals as Japan stimulus plan falls short

The yen strengthened against its rival currencies during Asian trade on Tuesday, hitting its highest level against the dollar since mid-July, as expectations receded for policy steps Tokyo will likely put together.

The greenback USDJPY, -1.28%  gained downside momentum during Asian, hitting ¥104.32. The level is much lower than ¥105.81 late Monday in New York.

The euro EURJPY, -1.14%  dropped to ¥114.78 from ¥116.50, while the poundEURJPY, -1.14%  tumbled to ¥136.87 from ¥139.03. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar were also higher against the Japanese currency.

The Nikkei financial daily reported in its Tuesday morning edition that Japan is looking to inject 6 trillion yen ($57 billion) in direct fiscal outlays into the economy over the next few years, double the amount initially planned. The overall package, including loans to businesses, could exceed 20 trillion yen. 

The media report helped push up the dollar against the yen to ¥106.15. But the dollar quickly erased the gains after Tokyo-based traders and dealers join the chorus of growing pessimism that the so-called “pure water” portion of the stimulus, or central and local government spending, will actually fall short of investors expectations.

“If you read the story carefully, it’s about multiyear spending, not in a single year,” said Daisaku Ueno, chief FX strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, adding that several investors are of the view that though apparent size of the government stimulus looks big, the portion of extra spending on a single year basis will not be so huge.

The dollar had climbed as high as ¥107.49 last week, as investors’ expectations had mounted for Tokyo to unveil an aggressive stimulus package, especially after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s meeting earlier month with former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, an advocate of monetization.

“The dollar had jumped straight to ¥107 on unrealistic imagination talks about the BOJ easing. What we are seeing is a fallback from there,” said Ueno.

With investors avoiding taking strong positions ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Bank of Japan policy meetings later this week, the dollar will likely move in a range centered around ¥105, Ueno said.

In other currency pair trade, the euro EURUSD, +0.1455%  changing hands at $1.0844 from $1.0997.

The WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, -0.42% a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.38% at 87.70.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yen-surges-against-dollar-other-rivals-as-japan-stimulus-plan-falls-short-2016-07-26