为什么普通家庭债务增加会阻碍经济增长

Jea Yu  2016年7月26日

自2008年的房地产和金融市场崩溃以来全球债务增长了60万亿美元。其中关键组成部分，普通家庭债务的上涨将会极大阻碍经济增长，原因如下。

债务组成

普通家庭债务在房地产泡沫和金融危机的之后的2008年到2011年之间有所下降。然而，从2012年又开始重新上涨。债务并没有得到偿还，而是转移到了美国政府名下。这是源于美联储17亿美元的联邦不良资产补救计划，这一计划是伯南克用来补救“大到不能倒闭”金融公司和银行的最后手段。这意味着政府购买了风险抵押贷款证券（MBS）。高质量的机构MBS得到了范妮梅、吉利美和房地美的担保。虽然计划通过量化宽松拯救了市场并使其达到新高，但是没有迹象表面这些债务得到了偿还。工资和企业收入开始停滞不前。临时工人和非熟练劳动力失业增加使失业率上涨到5%。消费者债务持续上涨。

债务推动型消费

当债务的发布是用于刺激经济增长和投资，那么它在投资升值且债务将被偿还的假设下对经济是有利的。债务推动经济增长是有积极意义的。然而，上述债务组成已经明确表明债务的发行是用来抵消旧债务和维持经济现状，而不是用来促进发展。问题就出现在这里。在理想情况下，债务增长应该符合生产力的增长。当债务增长超过GDP的90%，将会变成一个麻烦的信号。我们需要减少债务或者加快经济增长了。截止到2016年7月，二者都没有实现。

大银行

银行正在使用他们大部分的资金进行回购和继续购买更多的债务，而不是进行对经济有直接影响的通过贷款投资传递资本。消费者和企业的贷款率一直停滞不前，例如，原因之一是更大的贷款限制。银行坚持认为贷款发放的谨慎能避免另一个金融泡沫，但是这也正在限制中小企业的发展，这些企业通常是经济增长最需要的动量。低利率使银行收入下降，他们则通过更高的费用提高收入，这又给消费者造成了负担。

最低工资和医疗保险

抵消工资增长，加利福尼亚和许多州已经把最低工资上调到15美元每小时，现阶段已经实行。此举的原因是他们认为工资增长能促进消费者支出，导致经济增长。企业则认为最低工资的大幅增长将在实际中阻碍经济增长和生产率。企业拥有者必须减少雇员以适应工资的上涨。这可能导致失业率上升。

也被称为奥巴马医改的《平价医疗法案》在2010年3月23日颁布。这一法案导致了更多的兼职工人将工作时间减少到40小时以下、全职工人辞职以避免更多的医疗保险支出。这一法案将缴纳健康保险的责任和费用转移给了员工。对通过雇主缴纳医疗保险的员工来说，奥巴马医改没有为其家属提供支付能力的解决措施。这可能意味着如果保费过多，家属将无力支付。

医疗债务

由于奥巴马医改的实行，健康保险的保费持续以两位数的速率增长。虽然有国家健康保险市场程序可用，但是保费数额过于巨大。因为没有保险的美国人面临着税收处罚，他们通常只能使用高额保险计划。然而，自付金额可能会超出兼职工作者的支付能力，这将导致医疗债务的增长。医疗债务是美国银行破产的最大原因。事实上，医疗债务的年增长比银行和信用卡债务的增长总和快三倍。

Why Rising Average Household Debt Will Hurt the Economy

By Jea Yu | July 26, 2016 — 3:00 PM EDT

Global gross debt has increased by $60 trillion since the real estate and financial market meltdown in 2008. A key component of that, rising average household debt, will eventually hurt economic growth for the following reasons.

Debt Composition

Average household debt declined after the real estate bubble and financial crisis from 2008 to 2011. However, the figure started to climb again in 2012. Rather than paying off the debt, it was literally transferred to the U.S. government. This all originated from the $1.7 billion Federal TARP program that Ben Bernanke implemented as a last resort to bail out the "too big to fail" financial firms and banks. This meant the government purchased risky private-labeled mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The high-quality agency MBS were already guaranteed by the U.S. government through Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac. While the plan managed to save the markets and spark a rally to new all-time highs through multiple series of QE, there are no signs that this debt is being serviced or paid down. Wage and earnings growth have been stagnant at best. The drop in the unemployment rate to 5% has been sparked by growth in part-time workers and low-skilled labor. Consumer debt continues to climb.

Debt-Fueled Consumption

When debt is used to stimulate growth and investment, it can be a boon to the economy under the assumption that the debt will be repaid from the investment appreciation. Debt-fueled growth is positive. However, the aforementioned debt composition clearly illustrates that debt is being used to offset old debt and maintain, rather than grow. This is where the problem lies. Ideally, growth in debt should be proportionate to productivity growth. When debt grows above 90% of the gross domestic product (GDP), it is almost always a sign of impending trouble. Either debt needs to be reduced or growth needs to rise. As of July 2016, neither was being achieved.

Big Banks

Banks are using much of their money to implement buybacks and continue to repurchase more debt rather than spread capital through loan investments that directly impact the economy. The growth rate of consumer and business loans has continued to be stagnant, for example, due to tighter credit restrictions. Banks insist that this is prudent on their part to avoid another financial bubble, but they are limiting the growth of small businesses, which is typically the most-needed growth engine. Low-interest rates have kept that portion of bank earnings depressed while they pursue growth through higher fees that continue to strain the consumer.

Minimum Wage and Health Insurance

To offset the curtailing wage growth, California and many states have raised the minimum wage up to $15 per hour, to be implemented in phases. The logic behind this move claims that higher wages equate to more consumer spending, leading to economic growth. Businesses have argued that a steep rise in minimum wage will actually hurt growth and productivity. Business owners will have to cut back on hiring and may have to terminate existing positions to accommodate the higher wages. This could result in unemployment rate spikes.

The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, was signed into law on March 23, 2010. The fallout has also resulted in more part-time workers as businesses have reduced hours to fall under the 40-hour, full-time status cutoff to avoid additional health insurance costs. This shifts the responsibility and expense of keeping health insurance to the employee. For employees who have health insurance through their employer, Obamacare offers no affordability measures for dependents of the employee. This can mean dependents are left on their own if the excessive premiums are too much to bear.

Medical Debt

Health insurance premiums continue to rise at double-digit rates due to Obamacare. While state health insurance marketplace programs are available, the premiums are daunting. Since uninsured Americans face tax penalties, they tend to be limited to high-deductible coverage plans. However, the deductibles alone may be too prohibitive for part-time workers to cover, which contributes to growing medical debt. Medical debt is the top reason for the majority of bankruptcies in the United States. In fact, medical debt is growing three times faster than bank and credit card debt combined on an annual basis.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/072616/why-rising-average-household-debt-will-hurt-economy.asp