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2016-08-17 17:19:22
英国退出欧盟导致许多投资者对英国和欧盟的经济前景产生担忧。此外,离开欧盟的过程至少需要两年,这将为事件对全球经济和外汇市场的影响带来更大的不确定性。到目前为止,距离6月23日英国公投约1个月的,英镑、欧元、人民币都出现贬值,而美元开始升值,使美国公民的国外旅游更加便宜。
美元的上涨
英国退出欧盟进一步加强了已经很强势的美元,因为投资者都把资金投放到低风险资产上。美元指数是一个美元相对于瑞典、瑞士、欧盟、日本、加拿大和英国等六个贸易伙伴货币的测量方式。在这些货币中,欧元占的比重为58%,随后是日元的14%。自从2011年5月达到72.7的低点后,美元就进入了上升阶段并且从2014年开始飙升,在2015年12月达到了100.51的高点,涨幅达38%。考虑到美元是世界的主要储备货币,美元的升值导致全球许多货币贬值,尤其是欧元和人民币,此外还有英镑。
英镑贬值
在过去两年美元的牛市中,英镑兑美元的汇率暴跌了24.6%。截止到7月18日,英镑/美元已经下跌10%,从1.474跌到1.326,使英镑成为今年下跌幅度最大的货币。虽然很多因素影响货币的市场定价,英国退出欧盟的影响是最主要的。在退欧公投之后,英镑下跌11%达到31年最低点。
欧元贬值
此外,欧元在英国退欧公投之后还经历了强烈的后续影响,在6月27日下跌3.4%,从1.138跌到1.099的低点。从2011年起,欧元/美元的汇率已经经历了巨大压力,因为欧盟从当时起开始实行量化宽松政策。从2011年4月1.481的高点到2015年3月1.049的低点,欧元/美元汇率下跌了29%。英国最近的举动加剧了欧元的下跌,因为投资者担心欧盟和欧元区的稳定。因此,欧盟理事会主席唐纳德正在竭尽努力减轻对其余27个国家的担忧。
人民币贬值
在欧洲大陆之外,英国离开欧盟的决定加剧了世界第二大经济体的货币人民币开始贬值。中国人民银行在2015年5月将外汇储备从3.56万亿美元减少到939亿美元之后,离岸人民币/美元在10个月内下跌5.6%,平均每月跌幅为0.56%。然而,在2016年7月中,即英国退欧公投之后的一个月,离岸人民币/美元跌到了0.149的五年最低点,从英国退欧公投之后下跌2%。随着美元在英国退欧公投之后的升值,中国和亚洲经济学家认为中国将被迫对人民币进行更快的贬值以维持中国在出口行业的竞争力。
国外旅游
虽然相对强势的美元损害国际贸易,但是却能大大降低美国公民国外旅游的成本。与几年前相比,美元分别对人民币、欧元和英镑升值了8%、18%和22%。希望这个成本的大幅降低能够刺激美国公民进行国外旅游,刺激国际旅游的发展。
These Countries Are Cheap Thanks to Declining Currency
By Chase Carmichael | August 13, 2016 — 11:00 AM EDT
Leaving the European Union has resulted in much concern among investors about both the fate of Britain’s and the EU’s economies. In addition, the process of exiting the EU is expected to take at least two years, which brings further uncertainty to how the situation may influence the global economy and currency markets. Thus far, about a month after the June 23, 2016 Brexit decision, the British pound, euro and Chinese yuan have depreciated, while the U.S. dollar has strengthened, making travel more affordable for American citizens.
Bull Market in the U.S. Dollar
Brexit has had the effect of further strengthening an already robust greenback as investors begin to park their capital in low-risk assets. The U.S. dollar index (NYBOT: USDX) is a measure of the dollar’s value relative to a basket of currencies consisting of the United States' six most important trading partners: Sweden, Switzerland, the European Union, Japan, Britain and Canada. Within this basket, the euro holds the most weight at 58%, followed by the yen at 14%. Since bottoming out in May 2011 at 72.7, the USD has entered into a bull market that took off in 2014 before peaking at 100.51 in December 2015, resulting in a gain of 38%. Considering that the U.S. dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency, the strength in the greenback has had the effect of depreciating the value of many other currencies around the world, most notably the euro and Chinese yuan, in addition to the British pound.
A Falling British Pound
Over the past two years of the dollar’s bull market, the British pound-to-USD ratio (GBP/USD) has plunged 24.6% from peak to trough. As of July 18, the GBP/USD had fallen 10% from 1.474 to 1.326, year-to-date (YTD), making the pound the most depreciated currency this year. While a countless number of factors go into the market pricing of currencies, the result of the Brexit decision is widely regarded as the most significant. After the vote to leave the EU, the pound fell 11% to a 31-year low.
Value of the Euro Depreciating
Furthermore, the euro has also faced significant backlash following the Brexit vote, dropping 3.4% from 1.138 to a low of 1.099 on June 27. The EUR/USD exchange rate has already been under pressure since 2011, when the EU started to ramp up its quantitative easingprogram. From its April 2011 peak of 1.481 to its March 2015 trough of 1.049, the EUR/USD dropped 29%. The recent move by Britain adds fuel to the euro’s bear market as investors’ concerns about the stability of the EU and the eurozone mount. As a result, the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, is making a sincere effort to calm worries surrounding the unity of the remaining 27 member nations.
Devaluing the Chinese Yuan
Outside of the European continent, the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU has aided the depreciation of the world’s second-largest economy’s currency, the Chinese yuan renminbi (CNY). After the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reduced its foreign-exchange reserves from $3.56 trillion to $93.9 billion in August 2015, the CNY/USD dropped 5.6% over the course of 10 months, averaging a 0.56% decline per month. However, over the course of July 2016, the month following the Brexit vote, the CNY/USD has already hit a five-year low of 0.149, a 2% drop since Britain’s decision. As the value of the dollar has gained following Brexit, China and Asia economist for the Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Helen Qiao believes that the PBOC might be forced to allow quicker depreciation of the CNY/USD to maintain competitiveness within the export industry.
Traveling Abroad
While a relatively strong dollar hurts international trade, it significantly lowers the cost of traveling abroad for U.S. citizens. Compared to two years ago, the dollar now goes 8%, 18% and 22% farther in China, the EU and Britain, respectively. There is hope that this considerable cost savings could spur Americans to travel abroad, boosting tourism internationally.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/081316/these-countries-are-cheap-thanks-declining-currency.asp
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