美联储加息态度谨慎 日元汇率突破100

亚洲交易时间周四早间，日元汇率呈上升趋势，兑美元的汇率突破了100日元。因为美联储的谨慎加息态度和疲软的东京股市增加了日元的买入量。

美元/日元先跌至99.64日元，随后在周二以99.55日元收盘，这是六月英国退欧公投之后的最低水平。今天美元开始回升，突破了100日元的阀值，成交价为100.16日元，但仍低于周三纽约市场的100.28日元。

欧元/日元跌至112.62日元，随后回升至113.23日元，周三晚间的成交价为113.20日元。英镑/日元由130.76日元跌至130.02日元，随后反弹至130.70日元。

美联储7月26日、27日的会议报告显示，联邦公开市场委员会的成员们就加息的时间问题产生了歧义。会议报告显示，最早的加息时间是在九月，但是在经济增长、就业及通胀问题达成一致之前，美联储是不会采取行动的。

这让那些期待着强硬信号的投资者倍感失望，在本周早些时间美联储官员降低了九月加息的可能性之后，这种态度更为明显。

疲软的东京股市也打击了市场情绪，投资者们纷纷买入较为安全的日元。日经指数一早下跌了1.1%，日中挽回了0.2%的损失。

“我认为投资者们不会大量买入日元”，GMO外汇主管Marito Ueda说，“反过来说，考虑到美联储在短期内加息的谨慎态度以及持续减少的市场交易量，我们没有理由积极地买入美元等其他货币。”野村证券首席外汇策略家Yunosuke Ikeda在早间消息中指出：“美联储主席耶伦强硬地为九月加息扫平障碍是愈加不可能了。”他希望成熟的美元买入行为能够推迟到11月或12月。

至于其他的货币交易，由于美元的大量卖空，欧元/美元突破了1.1328美元，是6月24日退欧公投以来的最高点。周三收盘价为1.1291美元。

华尔街美元指数为85.47，下跌了0.19%。

Yen back above ¥100 on Fed’s cautious stance over rate hikes

The yen gained traction against its peers during Asian morning trade Thursday, rising above the ¥100 — line versus the dollar again, on the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance in raising rates and weakness in Tokyo stocks prompting buying of the Japanese currency.

The greenback USDJPY, -0.34%  fell to as low as ¥99.64 earlier in the session, coming close to ¥99.55 set on Tuesday — the lowest level since the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union in late June. The U.S. currency rose back above the ¥100 — threshold, changing hands at ¥100.16, but still below ¥100.28 late Wednesday in New York.

The euro EURJPY, -0.15%  dropped to as low as ¥112.65 before coming back to ¥113.23 midday. The common currency was at ¥113.20 late Wednesday. The poundGBPJPY, -0.21%  fell to as low as ¥130.02 from ¥130.76, before bouncing to ¥130.70.

The Fed’s minutes from its July 26-27 policy meeting released overnight showed members of the Federal Open Market Committee were split on the timing of an interest rate hike. The minutes suggested a rate increase is a possibility as early as September, but that the Fed won’t commit to moving until a stronger consensus can be reached about the outlook for growth, hiring and inflation.

That dampened sentiment for some investors who were anticipating more hawkish signals especially after Fed officials remarks earlier this week flagging the possibility of a rate increase in September.

Weakness in Tokyo stocks also bruised the market sentiment, prompting buying of the perceived safety of the Japanese currency. The Nikkei Stock AverageNIK, -0.87%  fell 1.1% in early morning session, before trimming losses to a 0.2% fall midday.

“I don’t think investors are buying the yen aggressively,” said Marito Ueda, director at FX Prime byGMO. “To put it the other way around, there is no reason to buy the dollar and others in a positive manner,” given the Fed’s cautious stance toward raising short-term rates and continued thin market volume due to the summer holiday, he said. “The possibility is now even lower of Fed chair (Janet) Yellen giving hawkish signals to smooth the way for a September rate increase” at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium on Aug. 26, said Nomura Securities chief FX strategist Yunosuke Ikeda in a morning note. He added that he expects any full-fledged dollar buying will now be pushed back to November-December.

In other currency trade, the euro EURUSD, +0.1949%   briefly hit $1.1328, its highest since June 24 shortly after the Brexit vote, amid a broader dollar selling. That compared with $1.1291 late Wednesday.

The WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, -0.26% a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.19% at 85.47.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yen-back-above-100-on-feds-cautious-stance-over-rate-hikes-2016-08-18