为什么高盛认为美元将保持强劲

Sean Ross  2016半年8月23日

美元在2014到2015年间意外的强劲，但是投资巨头高盛集团认为美元还有很大的上涨空间。高盛一直以来都持有这个看法，在2015年6月首次发出美元强劲的预测，之后在其年中报告中重申了这一观点。如果这一看法正确，强劲的美元将使大多数业务在美国的公司受益，至少会比拥有更多国际业务的公司获得更大的好处。这一情况同样能促进美国消费者购买国外商品，可能会引起生活成本不错的上涨。

高盛7月的声明之后，美国公布了远逊于预期的2016年第二季度GDP增长。这一消息使在GDP报告之前一直上涨的美元大幅下跌。到2016年8月2日，7月所有的美元上涨已经全部消失。这不能说明高盛集团的观点是错误的，但是这对美元上涨的观点出现一些缓解。

高盛的年中报告

高盛全球投资者研究团队在7月19日发布了名为“在美国寻找避险方式”的Portfolio Passport。这个55页的文件指出投资者应该向国内销售量大的美国股票和在美国销售量大的外国股票倾斜投资。

高盛集团特别强调100%在美国国内销售的美股。报告说美国面向消费者企业的策略是在相对稳定的美国经济受益的同时隔离英国退欧、中国经济增长的风险和美元上涨的影响。报告指出面向美国消费者的国内卖家倾向于拥有较低的市盈率和更高的预计增长。

为什么美元会更加强劲

高盛集团认为其美元看涨预期将“转变为对全球市场增长的预期和中央银行政策。”高盛经济学家预测美联储在2017年之前加息的几率为65%，但是仍然预测国外央行的态度将会比美联储更加温和。这将使美元在外汇市场中变得最有吸引力。

这是一个重要的点。美元的强度不仅仅依赖美联储的政策，而是依赖美联储政策与外国央行政策的对比。日本央行和欧洲央行都在今年早期推出了负利率政策。央行政策的分歧可能迫使投资者在美元中寻求避险。

报告指出，自从英国公投退出欧元区之后美元已经上涨了2%，早期对国内国际市场的担忧已经衰退并允许美元继续上涨。高盛的专家认为美联储将在临近年底时加息，这将和2015年12月的加息一样，给美元的上涨带来促进作用。

美元指数下滑

苦苦挣扎的经济使对美联储加息的预期下降。2016年第二季度是连续第三个经济增长低于2%的季度。一个月之前，高盛认为美国经济即将回弹。鉴于疲软的收益预测，该公司的研究团队估计第二季度的经济增长率为2%，这低于路透社提供的2.6%的预测，但是也几乎是1.1%的实际经济增长的两倍。

高盛的报告发布不到一周，美国指数达到2016年2月以来最高点。美元在中国陷入困境、南美经济疲软和英国与欧盟都处在英国退欧公投后的影响中时表现强劲。

美联储在今年下半年加息的可能性正在下降。到7月末，9月加息可能性从18%跌到12%。高盛期货市场团队报告12月加息的几率已经跌到了40%。

Why Goldman Thinks the U.S. Dollar Will Stay Strong (GS)

By Sean Ross | August 23, 2016 — 2:43 PM EDT

The U.S. dollar (USD) was surprisingly strong during 2014 and 2015, but investment-banking giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) believes that there is more room to grow. This has been a consistent refrain from Goldman, which first predicted strong dollar growth in May 2016, and reasserted its confidence in its midyear report. If correct, a strengthening dollar should benefit companies that conduct most of their business in the United States, at least relative to companies with a stronger international presence. It could also be a boon to American consumers who want to purchase foreign products, potentially offering a nice cost-of-living boost.

Since Goldman's July proclamation, the United States posted much weaker-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter of 2016. The news fell hard on the USD, which had been rising prior to the GDP report. All of the dollar's gains in July were wiped out by Aug. 2, 2016. This does not mean that Goldman Sachs was wrong, necessarily, but there are some valid counterpoints to bull arguments for the dollar.

Goldman Sachs Midyear Report

The Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research team released "Portfolio Passport: Take Refuge in America" on July 19, 2016. This 50-page document makes the case that investors should tilt new investments toward American stocks with high domestic sales and foreign stocks with high U.S. Sales.

Goldman Sachs placed particular emphasis on U.S. domestic stocks with 100% domestic sales. The strategy behind American consumer-facing businesses was designed to insulate against "Brexit fallout, China growth risks and a strengthening dollar, while benefiting from the relative stability of the U.S. economy," the report said. The report notes that domestic sellers with an American consumer base tend to have lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and higher projected growth.

Why a Stronger Dollar?

Goldman Sachs attributed its bullish outlook for the USD to "shifts in market expectations for global growth and central bank policy." Goldman's economists anticipated a 65% chance of a Fed rate hike before 2017, but still expected foreign central banks to appear more dovish than the Fed. This would leave the USD as the metaphorical cleanest shirt in the foreign-exchange (forex) hamper.

This is an important point. The strength of the dollar does not rest solely on the policy of the Fed, but rather, on relative Fed policy when compared with foreign central banks. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) each went negative earlier in the year. This divergence in central bank policy could force forex traders to seek refuge in the U.S. Dollar.

The report pointed out that the dollar has been up 2% since Great Britain's vote to leave the eurozone, and that earlier fears about domestic and global recession should recede and allow the USD to float higher. Goldman's experts believe that the Fed will draw closer to a rate hike by year's end and, just as with the last rate hike in December 2015, provide a boost for the dollar.

USD Index Slips

The struggling economy put downward pressure on Fed-hike expectations. The second quarter of 2016 marked the third straight quarter below 2% growth. One month earlier, Goldman liked the resilient U.S. economy. Thanks to weak predicted earnings, the company's research team estimated a 2% growth rate in the second quarter, which is less bullish than the 2.6% estimate provided by Reuters' survey of economists, but almost double the 1.1% actual growth posted by the economy.

Less than one week after the Goldman Sachs report was published, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reached its highest point since February 2016. The dollar showed strength in light of difficult conditions in China, weakness in South America and the continuing fallout in the U.K. and European Union (EU) post-Brexit.

The likelihood of the Federal Reserve increasing the federal funds rate later in the year appears to be declining. By the end of July 2016, the chances of an interest rate hike in September declined from 18% to 12%. The Goldman Sachs futures market team reported that the odds of a December rate hike had fallen to just 40%.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/082316/why-goldman-thinks-us-dollar-will-stay-strong-gs.asp