美联储Brainard呼吁继续谨慎对待加息政策

美联储官员Lael Brainard在周一表达了强硬的鸽派态度，她认为美联储应该放缓脚步，等待合适的加息时机。

市场观察网一直期待着耶伦的讲话。一些人认为耶伦会转变态度，发出九月加息的信号。

但是Brainard态度坚定，她表示美联储必须保持宽松的状态，以应对低增长、低通胀的环境。这种经济环境已使欧洲和日本备受折磨。

道琼斯工业指数回升了200余点，让投资者们松了一口气，因为九月加息信号的风险已经过去了。

依照联邦基金期货的走势，九月加息的可能性已由19%降至11%。

但是专家提醒，九月加息的可能性仍然存在。

原美联储官员、现Evercore ISI 副总裁Krishna Guha说：“联邦政策委员会的内部讨论可能要结束了，但我们仍有挥之不去的担忧。如果鸽派和鹰派仍旧势均力敌，那么优势便会转向鹰派，从而弥补先前的长久等待。”

分析家指出，Brainard的演讲表明了她的强硬态度，如果美联储决定加息，她会立刻出言反对。

Amherst Pierpont Securities的首席经济学家Steve Stanley认为Brainard“鸽”得太过了。

他说：“Brainard今天的演讲表明，在下周的加息会议上，她绝对不会投支持票。”

当问及以何理由反对时，Brainard大笑表示，最好的方法就是阐明她的观点。

Brainard说：“意料之外的疲软需求比意料之外的强势带来的风险更大。这种‘不对称’的风险需要以更谨慎的政策调整来应对。”

她补充道：“在未来的几个月中，政策的脚步需要更细致的评估。”

Brainard的一席话受到了很多人的关注，因为一旦希拉里在十一月竞选成功，Brainard很有可能成为下一任财政部长。Brainard在比尔·克林顿白宫就职，随后又担任过财政部的高级职务。

Brainard的讲话是加息会议之前的最后一次官员讲话。

巴克莱银行首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen等分析家推测，Brainard可能是在利用演讲向鹰派转移，表明九月加息的可能性正在增加。

反过来讲，Brainard将鸽派坚持稳定利率的最佳理由都整理了出来。

这位美联储官员表示，通胀调整不足比调整过量更值得担心。

她说：“虽然劳动力市场表现强势，但通胀压力的缺失使得先发制人的紧缩政策立不住脚。”

海外的反通胀压力和疲软的需求将继续影响着美国的经济前景。

Fed’s Brainard calls for continued ‘prudence’ in interest-rate policy

Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard on Monday made a forceful dovish case for holding rates steady as the U.S. central bank prepares to meet.

Markets has been anticipating Yellen’s remarks. Some thought she might move to the center and signal a rate hike in September.

But Brainard stuck to her guns, saying the U.S. central bank must stay accommodative to guard against the low-growth, low-inflation environment that bedevils Europe and Japan.

Markets DJIA, +1.32%   breathed a sigh of relief and rallied by more than 200 points because the risk that she might have agreed to signal a September rate hike had passed.

The probability of a rate hike in September fell to 11% from 19%, according to changes in Fed funds futures.
But experts warmed a September rate hike couldn't be ruled out.

“The debate within the Fed policy committee is likely to be close and we retain a lingering concern that internal committee dynamics may mean that this time if there is a tie on the merits, the tie would go to the hawks rather than the doves, as payback for past patience,” said Krishna Guha, a former Fed official and now vice chairman of Evercore ISI.

Analysts noted that Brainard’s remarks strongly suggest she would likely dissent if the Fed decided to move rates higher.

Steve Stanley, chief economist of Amherst Pierpont Securities, said Brainard was “over the top dovish.”
“Based on her speech today, Brainard will certainly not be arguing for or voting for a rate hike next week,” he added.

Asked about a possible dissent, Brainard laughed and the best she can do is explain her views.

Brainard said the economy faces greater risk from unexpected weakness in demand rather than unexpected strength, This “asymmetry” in risks “counsels prudence in the removal of policy accommodation,” she said, in a speech to The Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

The policy path can continue to be assessed “in the months ahead,” she added.

See: Recap of live blog of Brainard’s Q&A

Brainard’s remarks are also closely watched because she has been touted as a possible Treasury Secretary if Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton wins the election in November. Brainard worked in the Bill Clinton White House and then held a top post at the Treasury Department under President Barack Obama before moving to the Fed.

Read: Clinton Treasury Secretary contender could send key signal about crucial Fed meeting. Brainard’s comments are the last word from a Fed official before the meeting in 10 days.

Some analysts like Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, had speculated that Brainard might use her speech to move toward the hawks, sending a message of unity on the Fed and increase the possibility of a September rate hike.

Instead, Brainard marshaled all of the best arguments the doves have for holding rates steady at the Fed’s meeting on Sept. 20-21.

The Fed governor said there are reasons to be more concerned about inflation undershooting than overshooting.
The lack of inflation pressure to date even though the labor market has been strong “makes the case to tighten policy pre-emptively is less compelling,” she said.

And disinflation pressure and weak demand from abroad will continue to weigh on the U.S. outlook for some time, the Fed governor said.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-brainard-calls-for-continued-prudence-in-interest-rate-policy-2016-09-12