为什么强势货币像烫手山芋

 Charles Bovaird  2016年9月13日

货币强势对国家和政策制定者都是一个重大的挑战。虽然货币强势有一定的好处，但是也能使一个国家的商品和服务比弱势货币国家的商品和服务更加昂贵。因为这种情况利弊参半，拥有强势货币可能很容易引起很多争议，这使得政策制定者很难抉择。

出口和强势货币

如果一个国家货币强势，该国的居民就能以相对便宜的价格购买以其他国家货币定价的商品和服务。然而，一个国家的货币相对其他货币升值也会使其出口遭受损失，因为对国外买家来说其商品价格将会上涨。出口是外国货币流入一个国家的主要途径，因此出口下降将会引发重大的经济问题。

央行政策

一个能影响货币价值的主要变量是央行政策，当央行改变金融政策时，很容引起显著的汇率波动。

在2007到2009年金融危机之后的几年中，许多中央银行都采取了激进的货币政策刺激经济的增长。这些央行将基准利率降低到历史最低点并购买了数以万亿计的美元计价资产。

美联储将利率降低到历史最低点并建立了三个独立的债券购买计划，最后一个债券购买计划在2014年10月结束。美联储在其他国家央行之前结束了量化宽松政策，因为美国经济的增长比其他国家要快的多。

一个在美联储停止之后还继续进行债券购买计划的金融机构是日本央行。2016年7月，日本央行宣布不仅要继续其固定收益证券的购买，而且还将购买股票交易基金的金额从3.3万亿增加到6万亿日元。市场参与者的反应是相对其他主要货币推高日元，这样的发展使日本政策制定者非常不快并破坏了该国出口商品的潜在吸引力。

政策趋势

在日本央行的声明发布之后，许多国家的央行都紧随其后，采取了更多的激进货币政策。以澳大利亚联储为例，在2016年八月将基准利率削减到历史最低的1.5%。在决定这一政策的会议上曾提到：“很有可能许多中央银行都会进行进一步的刺激”并建议澳大利亚联储做出这一决定，其目的是采取进一步措施抵制澳元的升值。

英格兰银行8月也宣布将进行货币政策调整，该银行表示这样做的原因是为了降低任何因退出欧盟遇到的经济问题出现的风险。因此，英格兰银行增加了量化宽松的力度、降低了利率并承诺投入1000亿英镑资金帮助借贷。

日本央行声明发布之后许多央行都开始迅速加强货币刺激的现象使央行政策看起来是互相依存的。此外，欧洲央行主席马里奥·德拉基在2016年6月的欧洲央行峰会上表示这些中央银行应当统一他们的货币政策。他强调多样化的货币政策不仅仅会引起外汇市场的汇率波动，还将影响资金流动，尤其是流向新兴市场的资金。因此，他建议中央银行共同工作获得相同的标准。

要点

拥有强劲货币会使国家和政策制定者都遭遇困难的局面。这样的局面可能因降低该国出口商品的吸引力引起经济困难。这些挑战在经济苦难时期的危害更加巨大。上文的例子已经表明，许多国家都不想拥有强势货币。

Why Having a Strong Currency Is Like Holding a Hot Potato

By Charles Bovaird | September 13, 2016 — 9:00 AM EDT

Having a strong currency can prove challenging for nations and their policymakers. While a robust currency has its benefits, it also makes a country’s goods and services more expensive relative to those denominated in less expensive currencies. Because such a situation creates winners and losers, having a strong currency can easily provoke a contentious situation that is difficult for policymakers to traverse.

Exports and a Strong Currency

If a nation has a strong currency, its consumers can purchase goods and services denominated in foreign currencies less expensively. However, as a country's currency appreciates relative to others, its exports can suffer as they become more expensive to foreign buyers. Exports represent the flow of foreign money into a country, so decreasing them could create significant economic headwinds.

Central Bank Policy

One major variable that can impact currency values is central bank policy, and when these financial institutions opt to harness differing policy prescriptions, it can easily provoke notable fluctuations in foreign exchange rates.

In the years following the financial crisis of 2007-2009, a wide range of central banks leveraged aggressive monetary policy in an effort to fuel more robust expansion. These financial institutions cut benchmark interest rates to record lows and purchased trillions of dollars' worth of assets.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates close to all-time lows and harnessed three separate bond-purchase programs, with the final one concluding in October 2014. The Fed eliminated its quantitative easing (QE) before the central banks of other countries, as the U.S. economy grew more quickly than that of other developed nations.

One financial institution that kept up its bond purchases after the Fed ceased these transactions was the Bank of Japan (BOJ). In July 2016, the BOJ announced it would not only continue to buy fixed-income securities but also step up its purchases of equity-traded funds from 3.3 trillion yen to 6 trillion yen. Market participants responded by pushing the yen higher relative to other major currencies, a development that displeased Japanese policymakers and potentially undermined the appeal of the nation’s exports.

Policy Trends

Many central banks followed suit after the BOJ announcement, taking steps to create more aggressive monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), for example, cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 1.5% in August 2016. The minutes for the policy meeting where this move was decided mentioned that “there was a reasonable likelihood of further stimulus by a number of the major central banks” and suggested the RBA make this policy move primarily with the intention of taking steps to fend off a climbing value for the Australian dollar.

The Bank of England (BOE) also announced changes to monetary policy in August, stating it wanted to help mitigate any headwinds the nation’s economy would encounter following the Brexit. As a result, the BOE increased QE, lowered interest rates and committed 100 billion pounds in an effort to help improve lending.

The raft of central banks quickly making efforts to intensify monetary stimulus following the BOJ announcement has made the policy of central banks seem interdependent. In addition, Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated during a June 2016 ECB forum that these financial institutions should align their monetary policies. He emphasized that diverging monetary policies could not only provoke volatility in foreign exchange markets but also impact capital flows, particularly those going into emerging markets. As a result, he suggested central banks work together to obtain alignment, meaning “a shared diagnosis of the root causes of the challenges that affect us all; and a shared commitment to found our domestic policies on that diagnosis."

Key Takeaways

Having a strong currency can create a difficult situation for both nations and their policymakers. Situations such as these can create economic headwinds by reducing the appeal of a country’s exports. These challenges can prove even more harmful during times of economic weakness. In these instances, many nations are loathing to have a strong currency.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/091316/why-having-strong-currency-holding-hot-potato.asp