4小时MACD 外汇策略

2011-08-19 09:23:09

waiting for some time before the bubble burst and our capital cannot handle those type of

stoplosses as they must be huge to handle the playing area of those on the beach. The

money changers can handle that, They will sit for six months and knows that the coming

tsunami will make them rich.

Fifthly are those that watches the faces of those that play. Their emotion will tell

the overall status. Playing!!!!!!. The big ones leave the scene unnoticeable to the

majority. It is only when there followers see they are not there anymore that they started

to react. It is at this point where you as part of that 5% must step in. Recognizing the

changing emotion and run with them. You might not know why you are running yet but

that you will read in the papers and not others reading about you in the papers.

The MACD signal only tells us that a change in motion (not emotion) is taking

place. We then have to look for a change in emotion and that comes with the TAIL I was

describing in the exercise. There are many formations as to show the change in emotion.

Morning/evening stars, tweezer top/bottom, spinners, inside candles, engulfing candles,

doji candles etc. etc!!!!! look at investopedia.com or any educational website for those

emotional signal patterns. Study past setups in the MACD signal that produced results

and try to recognize the change in emotion. Also study the signals that did not produced

results and see if there was emotional activity or not. If you have both in place, the

MACD signal together with the emotional signal your chances of success are so much

higher.

附录二

The horizontal lines is just there to show overbought and or sold levels especially on the EurUsd. Sometimes the movement is close to the zero and within the fisrt MACD zone. I only use it as benchmarks as to where the MACD are at the moment. If one zooms in then you dont loose sight of the position of the MACD.

The MACD does not have to reach certain levels. It is only when it zig zag accross the zero that one must be carefull but it happens when the price is in a narrow channel waiting for a breakout.

Stoploss is set at the most resent high or low or at least two bars away. Do a bit of backtesting to get the feel for it. I try not to use equal numbers like 30, 40 etc. I rather use 33, 43 etc. Equal numbers seem to be sometimes the target . Stoplosses also depend on the capital and risk profile of each individual. It is with what you are comfortable with but at least out of the way. Because this strategy normally preduces a move right after the entry the stoploss dont have to be big.

It is just because of working schedule and limited internet access during working hours.

These were the amount of deals for 2006 per time (GMT+2)

01:00---25

05:00---34

09:00---17

13:00---46

17:00---52

21:00---29

That also depends on the profit targets. If I can only plan to manage 30 pips out of the deal I want my stoploss not to be greater than that. I sometimes even uses two candles back if the first one is a small candle.

Todays trade (post31) had entry at 1.2915 with stoploss at 1.2890 initially and the previous candles fell nice within that range.

I also takes profit in stages so that when a trade has run to the first S/R I like to get something in my pocket. I like to get to breakeven as soon as possible and the let the rest have its run.

Remember also that the price has broken down through the 89SMA and a pullback to the 21EMA is the rule. But the MAs is to crowded so I will wait for a breakout first and then confirmation on the MACD as we are in a little consolidation phase. If the price moves away from the 21EMA coming down and the MACD shows our trend continue setup(move towards zero and then turn away) one can consider entering with first target 1.9500 and second one 365EMA. Also watch the trendline as from 8Jan. We are at support. Patients is the name of the game.

As you can see in the samples that it seems that most of the time the MACD gives a positive signal before news comes out. And then I dont mean minutes before it. It will give it some time earlier. The big ones already knows before the news. I will set stoplosses at different levels to minimize the risk and yet to take advantage of the move should it go in my favour.

Inrerest rates and farm payrolls is always dicy and I prefer to close deals before that.

I just want to emphasize someting. I dont trade as to the exact pip. By that I mean if the 21EMA is 39 pips away I subtract my 2 pips spread and then put in a close order for 37 pips. I dont do it that way. Profit after 30 pips is good enough for me. I have lost to many deals with one or three pips to be that exact. If my profit target is at 1.2900 with a possible 40 gain I will take profit at 1.2890 for a sure 30 pips. I dont also trade every signal the MACD is given. Look at history to see which ones give definite gain and study the looks of it. See how it moved in relation to the MAs.

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