经济数据对市场的影响及对应方法

US – Redbook

How does this affect the market?

The Redbook survey is a weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the ICSC-UBS index. This index is correlated with the general merchandise portion of retail sales, covering only about 10 percent of total retail sales.

Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, youll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, thats a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge. p.7

gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001 and again in 2003. The Redbook is one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits.

US - Challenger Job-Cut Report

How does this affect the market?

A monthly report on the number of announced corporate layoffs. It is not adjusted for seasonal variations. The report indicates trends in the labor market.

These statistics on layoffs help us gauge the strength of the job market. Fewer layoffs suggests more people have jobs. Every job comes with an income, which gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so the stronger the job market, the healthier the economy. Theres a downside to it, though, which is relevant these days. When few people are looking for jobs, businesses can have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan talks about it all the time and watches for it constantly. The Challenger report breaks down the layoffs into industries, which provides insight to trends that likely will effect stock prices in specific industries. Note that not all _announced_ layoffs culminate in _actual_ layoffs.

US - ISM Non-Mfg Index

How does this affect the market?

The non-manufacturing ISM surveys nearly 400 firms from 60 sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. Financial market players monitor the business activity index, because a composite index, like its manufacturing cousin, is not compiled by the ISM.

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data like the ISM non-manufacturing surveys business activity index, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock p.8

market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly-and causing potential inflationary pressures. The ISM manufacturing index has a long history - dating to the 1940s. This new report (beginning in 1998) was originally not adjusted for seasonal variation, but the ISM has since established seasonally adjusted figures for several of the ISM non-manufacturing components (including the business activity index) since 2002. As a result, the ISM non-manufacturing survey has garnered more attention and is almost as widely followed by financial market participants as its manufacturing cousin.www.talkforex.com

AU – Employment

How does this affect the market?

Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nations business and government establishments. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day.

Q(cAAU - Unemployment Rate

How does this affect the market?

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day.

US - Monster Employment Index

How does this affect the market?

Monster collects job postings from 1,500 web sites (including Monster.com) and creates an index of job availability, akin to The Conference Boards help wanted index. The difference between the two is that one collects help wanted advertising from newspapers and the other collects from online posting. The Monster index is not seasonally adjusted.

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