经济数据对市场的影响及对应方法

Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a slower rate of growth that wont lead to inflationary pressures. Wholesale sales and inventory data give investors a chance to look below the surface of the visible consumer economy. Activity at the wholesale level can be a precursor for consumer trends. In particular, by looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see how fast production will grow in coming months. For example, if inventory growth lags sales growth, then manufacturers will need to boost production lest product shortages occur. On the other hand, if unintended inventory accumulation occurs (i.e. sales did not meet expectations), then production will probably have to slow while those inventories are worked down. In this manner, the inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for tracking the economy.

US - Consumer Credit

How does this affect the market?

The dollar value of consumer installment credit outstanding. Changes in

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consumer credit indicate the state of consumer finances and portend future spending patterns.

Growth in consumer credit can hold positive or negative implications for the economy and markets. Economic activity is stimulated when consumers borrow within their means to buy cars and other major purchases. On the other hand, if consumers pile up too much debt relative to their income levels, they may have to stop spending on new goods and services just to pay off old debts. That could put a big dent in economic growth. The demand for credit also has a direct bearing on interest rates. If the demand to borrow money exceeds the supply of willing lenders, interest rates rise. If credit demand falls and many willing lenders are fighting for customers, they may offer lower interest rates to attract business. Financial market players focus less attention on this indicator because it is reported with a long lag relative to other consumer information. Long term investors who do pay attention to this report will have a greater understanding of consumer spending ability. This will give them a lead on investment alternatives.

FR - Industrial Production

How does this affect the market?

Industrial production measures the physical output of the nations factories, mines and utilities.

GB – PPI

How does this affect the market? d)

The producer price index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers.

GB - Merchandise Trade

How does this affect the market?

Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.

JP - CGPI (PPI)

How does this affect the market? The corporate goods price index (CGPI), previously called the wholesale price

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index, is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers. *Data published in the equivalent time of the release

FR - Merchandise Trade

How does this affect the market?

Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.

GB – CPI

How does this affect the market?

The consumer price index is now the official inflation measure. It is defined as an average measure of change in the prices of goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households in the UK. It is calculated using HICP methodology. The CPI is the Bank of Englands inflation measure.

CA - Bank of Canada Announcement

How does this affect the market?

The Bank of Canada Governing Council consists of 6 members. The Council makes an announcement about every six weeks to indicate the near-term direction of monetary policy. There is no meeting schedule as there is for the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank.

MThe Bank of Canada Governing Council determines interest rate policy for Canada. The Council is composed of the Governor, Senior Deputy Governor, and four Deputy Governors. There is no predetermined meeting schedule, but rather the Bank issues an announcement schedule at which time, monetary policy changes, if any, are made public. Unlike the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, or the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada has an established inflation target range of between one and three percent but is focused on the mid-point of two percent. Because interest rate decisions affect market interest rates to varying degrees, the Bank has created its own core consumer price index, which eliminates eight volatile products. As in the United States, market participants speculate about the possibility of an interest rate changes. If the

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